EQT: Our Near-Term Growth Expectations Were Overoptimistic; Reducing Fair Value by 5%

In its third-quarter 2024 trading update, narrow-moat EQT reported a 4% yearly increase in fee-generating assets under management to EUR 134 billion. Compared with the second quarter of 2024, FAUM was broadly stable. EQT also provided fresh FAUM guidance and it now expects to raise EUR 100 billion in its upcoming 2025-27 fundraising cycle, which is around 33% higher than what it raised during its previous fundraising cycle. The new FAUM guidance is broadly in line with what we have penciled in for FAUM growth over the medium term, but our 2024 estimate was overly optimistic. We now estimate that EQT will manage around EUR 136 billion of FAUM at the end of 2024 and we reduce our fair value estimate to EUR 315/share from EUR 330/share previously.