Sands China Earnings: Renovation Disruption Coming to an End; Full Steam Ahead in 2025

Narrow-moat Sands China’s third-quarter performance was slightly ahead of our and market expectations, despite the renovation disruption from phase 2 of its Londoner Macao project. With the negative impacts coming to an end in the fourth quarter, we expect the firm to reaccelerate sales growth and margin expansion from 2025. This is underpinned by the reopening of the Londoner Grand casino in September 2024 and Venetian Arena in November 2024, as well as the launch of the Londoner project in phases through the second quarter of 2025. We maintain both our earnings forecasts and fair value estimate of HKD 26.50 per share. We think the shares are slightly undervalued currently. We believe the Londoner project will help reposition the high-quality property toward premium mass and elevate the customer experience, driving additional high-value customer volume and sales.