BAE Systems PLC

BA.: XLON (GBR)
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BAE Systems: Slightly Increasing Fair Value Due to Higher European Defense Spending

We've updated our fair value estimate for BAE Systems to GBX 1,550/USD 75 per share from GBX 1,490/USD 74 to reflect increased European defense spending catalyzed by Donald Trump's election as US president. While NATO's defense spending target of 2% of GDP has been a longstanding benchmark, we believe it is inadequate, given decades of underinvestment. Trump's call for NATO allies to raise their contributions could drive substantial increases in defense budgets. We expect European defense spending to rise from 1.7% of GDP in 2023 to 2.4% by 2029 and 2.8% by 2032.

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