Hilton: We See a Path to Enduring Revenue Per Available Room Growth; Shares Remain Pricey

We have increased our 2026-28 revenue per available room, or revPAR, forecast for wide-moat Hilton to an average annual growth rate of 5.3% from 3.5%, as our research shows the US industry can post strong increases despite reduced savings rates and elevated inflation. We have lifted Hilton’s fair value estimate to $214 per share (representing a 15 times 2025 EV/adjusted EBITDA) from $185. Despite our expanded valuation, we see shares as overvalued. But we wouldn’t need much discount to recommend shares of this brand advantaged wide-moat company.