Shopify Earnings: Positive Demand Trends Continue Across All Products and Geographies

We are raising our fair value estimate to $120 per share, from $105 previously, for wide-moat Shopify after the firm reported good results and provided first-quarter guidance that was once again better than our expectations. Management commented that it thought the company was the right size to increase revenues in 2025 without meaningfully adding to headcount, which drives our margin assumptions slightly higher throughout our forecast. We acknowledge our profitability estimates have been and remain slightly below consensus given historic volatility. Our fair value estimate for Canadian shares rises to CAD 172 from CAD 141. We now see shares as fairly valued. We continue to believe that Shopify is well positioned as a leader in e-commerce and has a variety of irons in the fire to sustain durable and profitable growth in the coming years.