Molson Coors Earnings: Prudent Brand Investments and Cost Cuts, but Premiumization Takes Time

We plan to maintain our $65 fair value estimate for no-moat Molson Coors after digesting its 2024 results and 2025 outlook. Revenue fell 0.6% on weak volumes, but adjusted EPS rose 10% thanks to tight expense control and accelerated share buybacks. For 2025, we plan to keep our 1% sales growth forecast, which aligns with the low-single-digit growth forecast in management’s outlook, as we expect price increases to more than offset soft volumes. Our adjusted EPS of $5.85 will likely go up by a mid-single-digit percentage as we incorporate deeper cost reduction and a lower share base compared with our prior estimates. Shares rose 5% after the report but remain attractive at a 14% discount to our intrinsic valuation.