Ebos Earnings: Shares Overvalued; Competition Intensifies

Narrow-moat Ebos grew first-half fiscal 2025 underlying revenue and underlying EBITDA by 10% and 7%, respectively, driven by a strong performance in community pharmacy. Management reiterated a full-year underlying EBITDA guidance range of between AUD 575 million and AUD 600 million, implying between 5% and 10% underlying growth on last year. We leave our earnings estimates broadly unchanged including our fiscal 2025 underlying EBITDA forecast of AUD 583 million on an AASB 16 basis. We maintain our fair value estimates of AUD 28.50 per share and NZD 31.50 at current exchange rates.