ASM International Earnings: Raising Fair Value Estimate; Orders Key to Watch Next Two Quarters

Narrow-moat ASM International met 2024 guidance reaching EUR 2.93 billion in revenue, but emphasized uncertainty heading into 2025. Management maintained its outlook and expects sales of EUR 3.2 billion to EUR 3.6 billion in 2025. The EUR 3.4 billion midpoint, where our estimate sits, would imply 16% year-on-year growth. We lift ASM’s fair value estimate to EUR 590 per share as we update our forecasts, with our fair value estimate representing a forward PE ratio of 37 and 31 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively. We see a compelling multiyear story in ASM, driven by above-average industry growth in the next decade. The shift to new 3D transistor structures will boost demand for atomic layer deposition in advanced logic and memory applications, benefiting ASM, which is the leader in ALD. Our 10-year revenue CAGR is 12.7%.