European Central Bank Allows UniCredit to Extend Commerzbank Shareholding to Just Below 30%

UniCredit received the green light from the European Central Bank to bring its stake in Commerzbank to 29.9%, allowing the Italian lender to advance its efforts for a potential takeover. We maintain our EUR 19.60 and EUR 35 fair value estimates for Commerzbank and UniCredit, respectively. We had previously assigned a high likelihood of a positive ECB decision. UniCredit believes that a decision to extend its shareholding in Commerzbank beyond the now approved 29.9%, will likely be taken in 2026, citing discussions with antitrust and key shareholders to extend the timeline. We expect Commerzbank’s efforts to make its case to remain independent will accelerate even further.