Merck Is Fighting to Reduce the Blow From Keytruda's Patent Cliff With Smart R&D Strategy

Merck's combination of a wide lineup of high-margin drugs and a pipeline of new drugs should ensure strong returns on invested capital over the long term. While we expect the firm could see sales declines in the late 2020s as patents on core oncology drug Keytruda expire in the US, it is likely that pipeline launches will limit these declines to a roughly two-year period during 2029-30. On the pipeline front, after several years of only moderate research and development productivity, Merck's drug development strategy is yielding important new drugs.