Raising Maersk's Fair Value Estimate on Short-Term Freight Rate Increases; Shares Overvalued

Maersk is now a focused global shipper and logistics company after divesting its energy and drilling, banking, and towage businesses in recent years. It is investing heavily to build its logistics and solutions segment, aiming to match the core maritime shipping business in revenue in the future. The shipping business, oceans, remains the largest division, contributing 75% of group EBITDA, but capacity is not expected to expand much going forward. While volume contributes to EBITDA, freight prices have the largest impact, something Maersk has little control over, making earnings volatile.