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Stock Analyst Note

CarMax stock rose about 10% in early Sept. 29 trading after reporting fiscal 2027 second-quarter diluted EPS up 81.3% year over year to $1.16, well above the $0.74 LSEG consensus. Comparable store unit volume grew 13%, breaking a four-quarter losing streak and its highest growth in about five years.
Company Report

CarMax's revenue has grown at a compound annual rate of 10.3% since fiscal 2000, driven by customer-friendly sales practices and technology. In 2025, it had 3.6% US market share of zero to 10-year-old vehicles. Its share was down 10 basis points from 2024 as the firm has not done a great job messaging its omnichannel capabilities, something new CEO Keith Barr must improve, along with making the online shopping process easier.
Company Report

CarMax's revenue has grown at a compound annual rate of 10.3% since fiscal 2000, driven by customer-friendly sales practices and technology. In 2025, it had 3.6% US market share of zero to 10-year-old vehicles. Its share was down 10 basis points from 2024 as the firm has not done a great job messaging its omnichannel capabilities, something new CEO Keith Barr must improve, along with making the online shopping process easier.
Company Report

CarMax's revenue has grown at a compound annual rate of 10.3% since fiscal 2000, from customer-friendly sales practices and the use of technology. In 2025, it had 3.6% US market share of zero to 10-year-old vehicles. Its share was down 10 basis points from 2024 as the firm has not done a great job messaging its omnichannel capabilities, something new CEO Keith Barr must improve, along with making the online shopping process easier.
Stock Analyst Note

CarMax stock fell over 16% on April 14 after it reported fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $0.34 that only beat the LSEG consensus after excluding a goodwill impairment and restructuring charges. New CEO Keith Barr will not give a detailed turnaround plan until after June.
Stock Analyst Note

Activist investing firm Starboard Value released a letter to incoming CarMax CEO Keith Barr on March 11. Starboard has invested about $350 million and is seeking two board seats for Starboard head Jeffrey Smith and home repair firm Frontdoor CEO William Cobb.
Stock Analyst Note

CarMax ended its CEO search on Feb. 12 by announcing former InterContinental Hotels Group CEO Keith Barr, 55, will become CEO and join the board effective March 16. The stock fell over 12% during Feb. 12 trading.
Company Report

CarMax's revenue has grown at a compound annual rate of 10.8% since fiscal 2000 from customer-friendly sales practices and use of technology. We think the firm will eventually reach its over 5% zero to 10-year-old vehicle market share target, up from 3.7% in calendar 2023 and 2024. However, goals of $33 billion in revenue and selling a combined 2 million annual retail and auction units may change with a new CEO.
Stock Analyst Note

CarMax's fiscal 2026 third-quarter earnings were in line with the abysmal guidance put out on Nov. 6 when the firm announced the Dec. 1 departure of CEO Bill Nash. Diluted earnings per share of $0.43 ($0.51 excluding restructuring) fell 46.9% year over year, with comparable unit sales down 9%.
Stock Analyst Note

On Nov. 6, CarMax announced CEO Bill Nash will step down as CEO and leave the board on Dec. 1. It also said that fiscal 2026 third-quarter comparable store unit sales will be down 8%-12% and EPS including a $0.09 CEO transition charge will be $0.18-$0.36, far below the $0.69 LSEG consensus.
Company Report

CarMax's revenue has grown at a compound annual rate of 10.8% since fiscal 2000 from the success of customer-friendly sales practices and use of information technology. We think the firm will eventually reach its over 5% zero to 10-year-old vehicle market share target, up from 3.7% in calendar 2023 and 2024. However, goals of $33 billion in revenue and selling a combined 2 million annual retail and auction units may change with a new CEO.
Stock Analyst Note

CarMax stock fell over 23% during Sept. 25 trading after reporting second-quarter fiscal 2026 diluted EPS of $0.64, down 24.7% year over year and drastically missing LSEG consensus of $1.05. Comparable store retail unit volume fell 6.3%, its worst decline since 9% in second-quarter fiscal 2024.
Company Report

CarMax's revenue has grown at a compound annual rate of 10.8% since fiscal 2000 from the success of customer-friendly sales practices and use of information technology. We think the firm will eventually reach its over 5% zero to 10-year-old vehicle market share target, up from 3.7% in calendar 2023 and 2024. Revenue of at least $33 billion should come before reaching another goal of selling a combined 2 million annual retail and auction units.
Stock Analyst Note

CarMax's first-quarter fiscal 2026 diluted EPS increased 42.3% year over year to $1.38, beating the $1.16 LSEG consensus. Comparable-store unit sales growth of 8.1% was the highest mark since third-quarter fiscal 2022's 15.8% and helped send the stock up over 6% during June 20 trading.
Company Report

CarMax's revenue has increased at a compound annual rate of 10.8% since fiscal 2000 because of the success of customer-friendly sales practices and use of information technology. We think the firm will eventually reach its over 5% zero to 10-year-old vehicle market share target, up from 3.7% in calendar 2023 and 2024. Revenue of at least $33 billion should come before reaching another goal of selling a combined 2 million annual retail and auction units.
Company Report

CarMax's revenue has increased at a compound annual rate of 10.8% since fiscal 2000 because of the success of customer-friendly sales practices and use of information technology. We think the firm will eventually reach its over 5% zero to 10-year-old vehicle market share target, up from 3.7% in calendar 2023 and 2024. Revenue of at least $33 billion should come before reaching another goal of selling a combined 2 million annual retail and auction units.
Stock Analyst Note

CarMax’s fiscal 2025 third quarter showed improving affordability for both consumers and inventory procurement. We are leaving our fair value estimate in place, as our thesis that the used-vehicle market will eventually recover from the chip shortage is playing out. Comparable-store retail revenue also increased for the first time since second-quarter fiscal 2023, though only by 0.5%. Diluted earnings per share rose 55.8% year over year to $0.81 and beat the $0.61 LSEG consensus. About 30% of retail units sold priced under $20,000 compared with 25% in the prior year’s quarter, enabling retail average selling prices to fall 3.9% to $26,153. Comparable-store unit volume grew 4.3%, which is a level that drives overhead cost leverage. Overhead as a percent of gross profit lowered by 640 basis points to 85% on cost management and 10.6% gross profit growth. More automated technology to interact with customers while they shop online is increasing the amount of the process a customer can do themselves while keeping labor costs in check. Management’s longer-term overhead costs as a percentage of gross profit target is in the mid-70% range. Much of the heavy spending on technology and other initiatives is complete, so less gross profit growth is needed to drive the overhead cost ratio down further than in recent years.
Stock Analyst Note

We are not changing our CarMax fair value estimate after the firm reported a decent fiscal 2025 second quarter for its retail business, considering poor used-vehicle affordability. Results were held back by an extra $52.2 million of loan-loss provision expense on loans issued prior to the quarter to reflect worsening credit quality industrywide. We are not worried about CarMax Auto Finance’s loan income collapsing because subprime is not the majority of its loan book. Comparable-store unit sales increased 4.3% year over year, the highest rate for any quarter since the third quarter of fiscal 2022, and average selling price fell 4.6% to $26,245. As new-vehicle inventories rise, we expect further ASP declines, which along with US interest-rate cuts should yield further consumer affordability improvement. Rate decreases tend to be favorable for CAF income as well, because there typically is a lag between CAF’s funding costs declining and those lower rates being passed on to consumers.

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