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Stock Analyst Note

On Feb. 12, Constellation Brands' board appointed Nick Fink, director since 2021, as the new chief executive officer, effective in April. Fink will succeed Bill Newlands, who will step down from the CEO position after seven years and retire from the board.
Stock Analyst Note

We are maintaining our fair value estimates for the beverage firms we cover following the US tariff announcements April 2. While tariffs for an extended period will pressure sales and margins, we think it’s possible that they could be rescinded as they tend to be used as a negotiating tactic. We see investment opportunities in Brown-Forman and Constellation Brands, which trade at respective 36% and 34% discounts to our $52 and $274 fair value estimates.
Stock Analyst Note

Shares of wide-moat Constellation Brands plunged over 17% after its weaker-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results, driven by frugal consumers scaling back alcoholic beverage spending. As a result, revenue remained flat at $2.5 billion, buoyed by a slowing 3% increase in beer sales (82% of sales). Challenges in the wine and spirits portfolio persisted, with sales dipping 14% during the quarter. Meanwhile, adjusted earnings per share remained unchanged from the prior year as cost efficiencies offset rising marketing investments. Ultimately, management lowered its full-year outlook for net sales growth to 2%-5% from 4%-6% and for adjusted EPS to $13.40-$13.80 from $13.60-$13.80. After nudging down our 6% and $13.76 respective estimates, we plan on reducing our $291 fair value estimate by a mid-single-digit percentage, leaving shares undervalued. We think our 10-year forecasts for 6% sales growth and 32% operating margin remain within reach, thus the moderate fair value change relative to share price movement. We remain constructive on the firm’s long-term outlook, given the strong brand equity of its Mexican beers and premiumization tailwinds.

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