Company Reports

Now that TC Energy has spun out its crude oil assets, it is almost fully a natural gas transmission firm. With strong growth in natural gas demand, both incremental and from power plant conversions, the outlook looks robust. This growth, combined with TC’s wide footprint, will result in many new opportunities for investment.

TC Energy posted adjusted EBITDA of CAD 2.95 billion versus PitchBook consensus of CAD 2.84 billion. Strong performance in the US gas pipelines and power and energy segments drove the outperformance. Management also revised its long-term outlook for gas demand upward.

Now that TC Energy has spun out its crude oil assets, it is almost fully a natural gas transmission firm. With strong growth in natural gas demand, both incremental and from power plant conversions, the outlook looks robust. This growth, combined with TC’s wide footprint, will result in many new opportunities for investment.

TC reported EBITDA at the high end of PitchBook consensus, CAD 3.09 billion versus CAD 3.04. The committed backlog increased by CAD 2.1 billion to CAD 23.2 billion, driven by sanctioning of the Appalachian Supply project. The uncommitted backlog declined by the same amount.

Now that TC Energy has spun out its crude oil assets, it is almost fully a natural gas transmission firm. With strong growth in natural gas demand, both incremental and from power plant conversions, the outlook looks robust. This growth, combined with TC’s wide footprint, will result in many new opportunities for investment.

TC Energy reported results that beat PitchBook consensus, with an EBITDA of CAD 2.96 billion versus a consensus of CAD 2.9 billion. Record gas throughput along with new projects entering service propelled the performance.

Now that TC Energy has spun out its crude oil assets, it is almost fully a natural gas transmission firm. With strong growth in natural gas demand, both incremental and from power plant conversions, the outlook looks robust. This growth, combined with TC’s wide footprint, will result in many new opportunities for investment.

Along with third-quarter results, TC Energy provided a 2028 outlook for CAD 12.6 billion-CAD 13.1 billion in EBITDA. The wider-than-usual range is due to items out of the company's control, like regulatory actions and rate cases, as well as operational efficiencies.

Now that TC Energy has spun out its crude oil assets, it is almost fully a natural gas transmission firm. With strong growth in natural gas demand, both incremental and from power plant conversions, the outlook looks robust. This growth, combined with TC’s wide footprint, will result in many new opportunities for investment.

TC Energy reported an adjusted EBITDA of CAD 2.625 billion, beating PitchBook consensus by 3%. Full-year guidance was revised up CAD 100 million to CAD 10.9 billion at the midpoint. Management cited asset availability, project execution, and positive rate decisions.

Now that TC Energy has spun out its crude oil assets, it is almost fully a natural gas transmission firm. With strong growth of natural gas demand, both incremental and from power plant conversions, the outlook looks robust. This growth, combined with TC’s wide footprint, will result in many new opportunities for investment.

We are increasing our fair value estimates for TC Energy to CAD 57 and $41, from CAD 53 and $39, after updating our model to incorporate the longer time horizon of the Bruce Power major component replacement program. Previously, we only explicitly forecast five years, which meant we could not capture the value of the project. Our new fair value equates to an EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple of 11.3 and 11.0 for 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Now that TC Energy has spun out its crude oil assets, it is almost fully a natural gas transmission firm. With strong growth of natural gas demand, both incremental and from power plant conversions, the outlook looks robust. This growth, combined with TC’s wide footprint, will result in many new opportunities for investment.

TC Energy reported CAD 2.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter, flat from the same year-ago quarter.

TC Energy reported CAD 10 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2024, up from CAD 9.5 billion in 2023, in line with our expectations. Results from continuing operations exclude the spinoff of its Liquids Pipeline business into South Bow in October 2024.

We are reaffirming our $39 and CAD 53 per share fair value estimates for TC Energy after the company reported third-quarter earnings. Our narrow moat remains unchanged.

In June 2024, TC Energy shareholders approved the spinoff of the firm’s liquids pipelines business. The spinoff will be called South Bow Corporation. We reduce our fair value estimate to CAD 53 from CAD 67 and maintain our narrow moat rating for the remaining TC Energy firm. South Bow has a lower-risk growth profile as compared with the overall TC Energy business, so divesting this liquids pipelines segment will allow TC Energy to focus on segments that are generating strong returns on capital, such as renewable energy.

TC Energy faces many of the same challenges as Canadian pipeline peer Enbridge but also offers important contrasts. Both firms offer a 5%-7% growth profile and a utilitylike 95%-98% of earnings that are highly regulated or contracted, with several years of project backlog. Enbridge largely focuses on oil assets, while TC’s focus is natural gas.

TC Energy faces many of the same challenges as Canadian pipeline peer Enbridge but also offers important contrasts. Both firms offer a 5%-7% growth profile and a utilitylike 95%-98% of earnings that are highly regulated or contracted, with several years of project backlog. Enbridge largely focuses on oil assets, while TC’s focus is natural gas.

After refreshing US/Canadian dollar exchange rates across our Canadian midstream models, we've made some very minor changes to our fair value estimates. For Enbridge, our Canadian-dollar-denominated fair value estimate falls to CAD 56 per share from CAD 57, while our USD 41 fair value estimate is unchanged. For Pembina Pipeline, our Canadian-dollar-denominated fair value estimate remains at CAD 55 per share, but our US-dollar-denominated fair value estimate increases to USD 41 per share from USD 40. For TC Energy, our Canadian-dollar-denominated fair value estimate of CAD 67 per share is unchanged, while our US-dollar-denominated fair value estimate increases to USD 50 per share from USD 48.