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Company Report

Tesco is the largest grocery retailer in the United Kingdom in terms of sales, with operations in Central Europe as well. The firm has completed a successful turnaround, involving reorganizing the business, shutting down unproductive international subsidiaries, and reassessing its UK store footprint.
Company Report

Tesco is the largest grocery retailer in the United Kingdom in terms of sales, with operations in Central Europe as well. The firm has completed a successful turnaround, involving reorganizing the business, shutting down unproductive international subsidiaries, and reassessing its UK store footprint.
Company Report

Tesco is the largest grocery retailer in the United Kingdom in terms of sales, with operations in Central Europe as well. The firm has completed a successful turnaround, involving reorganizing the business, shutting down unproductive international subsidiaries, and reassessing its UK store footprint.
Company Report

Tesco is the largest grocery retailer in the United Kingdom in terms of sales, with operations in Central Europe as well. The firm has completed a successful turnaround, involving reorganizing the business, shutting down unproductive international subsidiaries, and reassessing its UK store footprint.
Stock Analyst Note

We are transferring coverage of four multinational grocers: Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Carrefour, and Ahold Delhaize. Tesco and Sainsbury’s are the largest grocers in the UK. Carrefour operates across Europe and Latin America, while Ahold is a leader in several European markets and North American regions.
Stock Analyst Note

No-moat Tesco finished its fiscal year in February 2025 with sales growth of 3.5% and total revenue of GBP 69.9 billion, in line with company-compiled consensus. Tesco increased market share by 60 basis points, leading the UK grocery market with a 28% share according to Kantar, while the Irish market share gained around 30 basis points to 24%. Despite market share gains, Tesco released the next fiscal year's operating profit guidance as lower than the year just ended amid a rising pricing war across local grocers. This sent the share price down nearly 7% at the market opening on April 10. We see this market reaction as overly pessimistic given Tesco’s solid performance and recent market share gains. We maintain our GBX 316 fair value estimate and view shares as fairly valued.
Stock Analyst Note

No-moat Tesco reported its fiscal 2025 third-quarter and Christmas trading update, which included retail sales being up 3.1%. Sales in the UK and the Republic of Ireland were up 3.9% and 4.4%, respectively, and we were pleased to see market share gains in both regions. From a channel perspective, online sales were strong, with the UK and the Republic of Ireland reporting 10.8% and 17.1% growth, respectively. Booker sales declined 1.3% due to weakness in the fast-food and tobacco markets, partially offset by strength in catering, up 2.8%. Improving customer sentiment drove growth in Central Europe to the tune of 3.5%, and we expect this momentum to continue into the next fiscal year.
Company Report

Tesco, the largest grocery retailer in the United Kingdom in terms of sales and store network, has successfully completed an ambitious turnaround. It has had one of the worst times in its history over the past decade, including an accounting controversy in 2014 and a subsequent decline in profits and growth owing to the advent of discounters in the UK food retail business.
Stock Analyst Note

No-moat Tesco reported fiscal half-year 2025 results with top-line results driven by volume growth as the inflationary environment normalized. Retail like-for-like sales were up 2.9%, with UK sales up 4.0%, and Ireland sales up 4.7%. Booker sales were down 1.9%, with the decline in tobacco and Best Food Logistics volumes offsetting strength in catering. From a channel perspective, all formats were up, led by digital growth of 9.3%. Within the UK, market share rose 62 basis points year over year to 27.8% with strong performance particularly from large stores. Ireland saw market share gains as well, increasing 88 basis points year over year to 25.3%. We were also pleased to see Central Europe sales up 0.6%, signaling a gradual improvement in consumer sentiment.
Stock Analyst Note

Tesco reported a first-quarter trading update that included a 3.4% increase in retail sales. Sales in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland were up 4.6% and 4.4%, respectively, with Booker down 1.3%. Catering sales rose by 2.2%, and retail sales were up 1%. From a channel perspective, digital channel sales increased by 8.9%, driven by volume growth. Tesco achieved strong market share gains in the UK, up 52 basis points year on year to 27.6%, supported by positive switching gains (customers switching from other retailers to Tesco), and in Ireland, up 59 basis points in the first quarter. Booker's performance was not as bad as the headline growth number suggests (overall sales declined 1.3%), given strong performance last year and the continued tobacco market decline.
Stock Analyst Note

Tesco announced preliminary fiscal 2024 results that included retail sales up 10.9%. Sales in the UK and the Republic of Ireland were up 7.7% and 6.8%, respectively, with Booker up 5.4%. Catering sales were up 10.2%, and retail sales were up 11%. From a channel perspective, large stores continued to perform strongly, with sales growing 8.2% in the period versus 4.5% sales growth for convenience stores and 10.4% sales growth for the digital channel, which was around 13% of UK sales. Tesco said it achieved strong market share gains in the UK, up 28 basis points year on year to 27.6%, and in Ireland, up 73 basis points to 23.6% at the end of the year.
Company Report

Tesco, the largest grocery retailer in the United Kingdom in terms of sales and store network, has successfully completed an ambitious turnaround. It has had one of the worst times in its history over the past decade, including an accounting controversy in 2014 and a subsequent decline in profits and growth owing to the advent of discounters in the U.K. food retail business.
Stock Analyst Note

Tesco announced its fiscal 2024 third-quarter and Christmas trading update that included retail sales up 6.4%. Sales in the U.K. and Republic of Ireland were up 7.5% and 7.3% respectively with Booker up 4%. Catering sales were up 3.5% and retail sales were up 4.1%. From a channel perspective, large stores continued to perform well with sales growing 7.5% in the period versus 4.5% sales growth for convenience stores and 11.5% sales growth for the digital channel, around 13% of U.K. sales. Tesco said it made strong market share gains in the U.K., up 15 basis points to 27.9%, and in Ireland, up 73 basis points to 24.5%, in the four weeks leading to Christmas.
Stock Analyst Note

Tesco announced fiscal 2024 interim results that included retail like-for-like sales up 7.8%. U.K. and Ireland sales were up 8.4% (U.K. up 8.7%, Ireland up 6.9%, and Booker up 7.5%). Booker remains a strong contributor, with retail and catering driving performance (up 14.2% and 11.6%, respectively) and tobacco the main detractor (down 5.9%). From a channel perspective, large stores continue to outperform, growing 9.3% in the first half versus 5.1% sales growth for convenience stores and 10% sales growth for the digital channel (13% of U.K. sales), with Tesco once again commenting on online market share gains of 71 basis points, close to 37.5%. Profit was up 17.2%, implying a margin of 4.4%, similar to prepandemic levels, driven by cost savings, volume growth, and a strong contribution by Booker.
Stock Analyst Note

Tesco announced a first-quarter trading update with retail like-for-like sales up 8.2%, with the U.K. and Ireland sales up 8.8% (U.K. up 9%, Republic of Ireland up 7.3%, and Booker up 8.4%). Booker remains a strong contributor with like-for-like sales growth at 8.4%, which with the U.K. (up 9%) were the standout performers for the group. From a channel perspective large stores outperformed, growing 9.9% in the quarter versus 5.9% sales growth for convenience stores and 8.2% sales growth for the digital channel, with Tesco commenting on online market share gains (up 75 basis points to 37.5%). Management confirmed fiscal 2024 guidance calling for a "broadly flat level of retail-adjusted operating profit and retail free cash flow within the target range of GBP 1.4 billion to GBP 1.8 billion" versus close to GBP 1.8 billion in our model. Although we don't expect to alter our GBX 298 per-share fair value estimate, we reiterate that no-moat Tesco is one of the best-positioned grocers in our Europe coverage. At the current share price and despite a 14% share price appreciation year to date, Tesco's expected returns look attractive versus peers. We attribute this to a 7% cash return to shareholders through a regular dividend (about a 4% dividend yield in our estimates) and a stepped-up share buyback program. Tesco also has dominant offline (27% market share), online (37.5% market share), and food-service (largest player) positions in the core U.K. market, and potential upside from ad opportunities in the digital platform and automation-driven online fulfillment efficiencies.

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