Company Reports

Yunda's recurring net profit rose 105.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, driven by government-mandated price hikes. However, parcel volume declined 3.7%, against the industry's growth of 5%. Unit transportation and sorting costs totaled CNY 0.66 per parcel, up 12% year over year.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies held 86.8% of China’s parcel‑delivery market by volume in 2025, based on company disclosures and State Post Bureau data. With market share already highly concentrated among leading operators, the scope for meaningful share gains from smaller players appears limited.

Yunda and STO Express released their preliminary earnings. Yunda expects core net profit for the first half of 2026 to increase 84.5%-116.5%, while STO Express expects an increase of 117.7%-143.0%.

Yunda's first-quarter core EBIT surged 39% year on year, lagging YTO's 59%. Revenue increased 3% despite a 6% decline in parcel volume, supported by a government-led, industrywide price hike. Yunda's parcel volume share fell to 11.9% from 13.5%.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies held 86.8% of China’s parcel‑delivery market by volume in 2025, based on company disclosures and State Post Bureau data. With market share already highly concentrated among leading operators, the scope for meaningful share gains from smaller players appears limited.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies held 86.8% of China’s parcel‑delivery market by volume in 2025, based on company disclosures and State Post Bureau data. With market share already highly concentrated among leading operators, the scope for meaningful share gains from smaller players appears limited.

Among the A‑share express operators that have released fourth‑quarter data, year‑on‑year revenue growth ranged from 0% to 24%. Average selling price improvement was partially offset by a slowdown in industry parcel volume growth to 5.0% year on year, from 13.3% in the prior quarter.

Third-quarter recurring EBIT for YTO and Yunda rose 33% and declined 31% year on year, respectively. The divergence was due to a 99-basis-point gross margin expansion for YTO and a 186-basis-point contraction for Yunda, alongside parcel volume growth of 15% and 7%, respectively.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies accounted for around 82% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in the third quarter of 2024, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With large delivery firms' share already high, we think further volume share gains from smaller players is limited.

Yunda's interim core EBIT plunged 50% year on year, despite a 16.5% increase in parcel volume. However, several express companies have since raised delivery prices in China's main production provinces—Guangdong and Zhejiang.

Yunda's full-year 2024 recurring EBIT rose by 24%, driven by improved operating cost efficiency. However, first-quarter 2025 recurring EBIT fell by 29% year on year despite 9% revenue growth, as gross margin contracted by 260 basis points.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies accounted for around 82% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in the third quarter of 2024, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With large delivery firms' share already high, we think further volume share gains from smaller players is limited.

In January 2025, parcel volume grew by 12% year on year at STO Express, 5% at YTO Express, and 3% at Yunda Holding. Meanwhile, express revenue rose by 5% at STO and 2% at YTO, but dropped 8% at Yunda.

The six largest privately owned express delivery companies accounted for around 82% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in the third quarter of 2024, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With large delivery firms' share already high, we think further volume share gains from smaller players is limited.

The network partner model-based companies in China have gained parcel volume share from direct operation-based companies, with share rising to 78% in 2023 from 76% in 2022. The six largest express delivery companies controlled around 87% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in 2023, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With share already high, we think further volume share gain is limited for the network partner model-based companies.

No-moat Yunda Holding’s cumulative nine-month results are tracking in line with our full-year estimates. We raise our 2024-26 net income forecasts by 1%-3% to factor in lower interest expenses and increase our fair value estimate by 2% to CNY 11.40 per share. We think shares remain undervalued currently.

We lifted no-moat Yunda Holding’s fair value estimate by 18% to CNY 11.20 per share after its first-half earnings exceeded our expectation. We think Yunda’s shares are undervalued, and we assume core operating profit will grow at a CAGR of 7% in the next five years.

The network partner model-based companies in China have gained parcel volume share from direct operation-based companies, with share rising to 78% in 2023 from 76% in 2022. The six largest express delivery companies controlled around 87% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in 2023, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With share already high, we think further volume share gain is limited for the network partner model-based companies.

The network partner model-based companies in China have gained parcel volume share from direct operation-based companies, with share rising to 78% in 2023 from 76% in 2022. The six largest express delivery companies controlled around 87% of China’s parcel deliveries by volume in 2023, based on data from the companies and China’s State Post Bureau. With share already high, we think further volume share gain is limited for the network partner model-based companies.

Yunda Holding reported that full-year 2023 revenue and operating profit were 6% and 9% below our expectations, respectively. In 2023, Yunda’s parcel volume market share fell 160 basis points to 14.3%, broadly in line with our forecast. First-quarter 2024 revenue rose 6.5% year on year while operating income increased at a strong rate of 21% year on year as lower management and sales expenses as a percentage of sales offset the impact from the lower gross margin.