Company Reports

For the first half of 2026, Aegon has reported what we believe are slightly weak operating results, excluding the comparable prior results for the United Kingdom. The 169% solvency is also a concern. That's the lowest it's been since the disastrous days of Aegon's Solvency II implementation.

Aegon has long been plagued by what is sometimes considered a strength of the insurance industry: diversification of products and geographies. The problem with this lies in the point at which a company chooses to diversify and whether it has pinned down expertise and market leadership before moving on to another product or region. In this case, a business can apply what it has learned through establishing the local and narrow competitive advantage to its new country or product group. In sum, diversification should be carried out only with core ascendency and should be carried out in a focused and strategic way. Aegon had not done this.

Aegon has long been plagued by what is sometimes considered a strength of the insurance industry: diversification of products and geographies. The problem with this lies in the point at which a company chooses to diversify and whether it has pinned down expertise and market leadership before moving on to another product or region. In this case, a business can apply what it learned through establishing the local and narrow competitive advantage to its new country or product group. Diversification should be carried out only with core ascendency and should be carried out in a focused and strategic way. Aegon has not done this.

We have rolled our model for Aegon to incorporate the latest figures for full-year 2025 and the divestment of Aegon UK. In doing so, we have adjusted some of our forecasts.

Aegon has reported what we think are by and large decent numbers for full-year 2025. They are not wholly operationally positive, but they do show the business is making solid progress.

Aegon has long been plagued by what is sometimes considered a strength of the insurance industry: diversification of products and geographies. The problem with this lies in the point at which a company chooses to diversify and whether it has pinned down its expertise and market leadership before it moves on to another product or region. In this case, a business can apply what it learned through establishing the local and narrow competitive advantage to its new country or product group. In sum, diversification should be carried out only with core ascendency and should be carried out in a focused and strategic way. Aegon has not done this.

For the third quarter of 2025, Aegon has reported steady progress on its long-term objectives to grow the business in more capital-light areas that include health and protection, retirement savings, and advice.

Aegon has reported a nearly 20% rise in operating profit for the first half of 2025, to EUR 845 million. The improvement has predominantly been driven by better performance of protection within its Americas business, the largest contributor to operating profit in this business.

Aegon has long been plagued by what is sometimes considered a strength of the insurance industry: diversification of products and geographies. The problem with this lies in the point at which a company chooses to diversify and whether it has pinned down its expertise and market leadership before it moves on to another product or region. In this case, a business can apply what it learned through establishing the local and narrow competitive advantage to its new country or product group. In sum, diversification should be carried out only with core ascendency, and it should be carried out in a very focused and strategic way. Aegon has not done this.

In the first quarter of 2025, Aegon's World Financial Group business increased the number of licensed ticketing agents to 87,694, which takes it quite close to the 90,000 that we think the business needs to reach by the end of this year.

Aegon has long been plagued by what is sometimes considered a strength of the insurance industry: diversification of products and geographies. The problem with this lies in the point at which a company chooses to diversify and whether it has pinned down its expertise and market leadership before it moves on to another product or region. In this case, a business can apply what it learned through establishing the local and narrow competitive advantage to its new country or product group. In sum, diversification should be carried out only with core ascendency, and it should be carried out in a very focused and strategic way. Aegon has not done this.

For 2024, Aegon delivered on its guidance of EUR 1.2 billion in operating capital generation. However, the operating capital that the business generated over the second half of 2024 was flat versus the second half of the prior year. Free cash flow fell 10% over the same period.

With regard to Donald Trump's announced tariffs, within our European insurance coverage Aegon will probably be least affected.

Aegon has long been plagued by what is sometimes considered a strength of the insurance industry: diversification of products and geographies. The problem with this lies in the point at which a company chooses to diversify and whether it has pinned down its expertise and market leadership before it moves on to another product or country. In this case, a business can apply what it learned through establishing the local and narrow competitive advantage to its new country or product group. In sum, diversification should be carried out only with core ascendency, and it should be carried out in a very focused and strategic way. Aegon has not done this.

Aegon’s key performance indicators don’t give us much confidence in how the business has evolved over third-quarter 2024.

Aegon has reported a loss of EUR 65 million for the first half of 2024, with a good single-digit rise in operating profit, hit by the unfavorable US mortality experience. In terms of its individual business unit reporting metrics, the business looks a little light on both its number of World Financial Group agents and also individual life sales, while advisor platform net outflows remain elevated. While Aegon has announced a EUR 0.16 per-share interim dividend, a 16.5% rise on the interim dividend it paid last year, operating capital generated after holding and other activities has fallen by 7% to EUR 458 million. That is mainly the result of a drop in capital generated in the Americas because of this unfavorable US mortality claims experience within the run-off businesses. It’s not all bad news because Aegon is running off financial assets to reduce capital employed and market risk. That should, or could, improve the earnings profile and stability of the business. However, the operating profit moving to a net loss is another in a long line of poor Aegon reporting periods. We maintain our fair value estimate and no moat rating.

Aegon has long been plagued by what is sometimes considered a strength of the insurance industry: the diversification of products and geographies. The problem with this lies in the point at which a company chooses to diversify and whether it has pinned down its expertise and market leadership before it moves on to another product or country. In this case, a business can apply what it learned through establishing the local and narrow competitive advantage to its new country or product group. In sum, diversification should be carried out only with core ascendency, and it should be carried out in a very focused and strategic way. Aegon has not done this.

We think Aegon has continued to develop its operations in line with a core strategy of growth. In the company’s World Financial Group that houses its network of middle market advisors, the unit has 75,652 licensed agents and versus the 74,000 the business reported at the end of last year that is a 2.2% increase. We think that leaves the business roughly on track to reach around 81,000 by the end of this year and build out to 110,000 by the end of 2027. The number of multiticketing agents has increased to 37,211, 3.3% better than the rise at the end of last year. The retirement plans business, or workplace, reported net deposits of $1 billion in the first three months versus $300 million in the same period in the prior year. The focus continues to be on midsize plans with net outflows from large plans. However, those outflows have moderated since the same period last year. Flows into mutual funds have also performed well. However, we think the Transamerica life business has declined. Products are mainly sold by World Financial Group agents and the business reported new life sales of $119 million in the first three months. This implies a decline versus the $486 million reported over last year. Transamerica’s target is for new life sales of $750 million by 2027 and at the moment this is tight.

Aegon has long been plagued by what is sometimes considered a strength of the insurance industry: the diversification of products and geographies. The problem in this strategy lies in the point at which a company chooses to diversify and whether or not it has pinned down its expertise and market leadership before it moves on to another product or country. In this case, a business can apply what it has learned in establishing the local and narrow competitive advantage to its new country or product group. In sum, diversification should be carried out only with core ascendency and it should be carried out in a very focussed and strategic way. Aegon had done neither.

With Aegon’s delivery of full-year earnings, our expectations for the firm remain the same. The main news is that Aegon has delivered on its financial commitments. However, operations look troubled in the UK. With initial guidance of EUR 1 billion in operating capital, Aegon has delivered EUR 1.28 billion, before holding and funding expenses. However, that beat is due to a slightly lower new business strain than was expected, EUR 624 million versus EUR 700 million; a net favorable benefit of EUR 105 million from EUR 160 million in operational variances; and negative EUR 55 million in higher claims. Ultimately, this means the operating capital generated is slightly above EUR 1 billion guidance. The EUR 1.1 billion operating capital generation target for 2024 remains. That will be helped by higher equity market account values delivering higher fees. Operationally, in World Financial Group licensed agents have grown to 74,000 versus 63,000 in the prior year, higher than the 72,000 we expected. The targets of 90,000 for 2025 and 110,000 for 2027 remain. World Financial's multiticket agents are also higher at 36,000, growth of 12.5%, but 2,000 lower than we expected. New life sales in US individual universal life are better than we projected at $486 million, growth of 12.5%. These two businesses are the largest contributors to US strategic asset earnings. Most operating metrics for the US workplace business point to better development, with advancement in sales of midsize plans, net deposits, and assets under administration. However, earnings on "in-force," an economic earnings metric, are down about $20 million because of investment in technology and employees. On the other hand, the UK business is not faring well, with strong outflows of retail deposits continuing. Those should stabilise.