Company Reports

Philip Morris International is the world’s largest tobacco company by volume, with cigarette sales to roughly 170 countries. Despite such dominance, its goal is to completely replace its cigarette sales with reduced-risk alternatives. As of 2025, 41.5% of revenue came from smoke-free products; the aim is two-thirds by 2030. We forecast PMI will reach 49% by 2030, reflecting steady and sizable contributions from combustibles rather than underperformance in reduced-risk.

Philip Morris reported 7.6% organic revenue growth in the second quarter and 13.6% adjusted EPS growth excluding currency impacts. International smoke-free grew 11.8% organically, and international combustibles grew 6.4%. The US declined 0.9%, better than the first quarter's 32% fall.

Philip Morris International is the world’s largest tobacco company by volume, with cigarette sales to roughly 170 countries. Despite such dominance, its goal is to completely replace its cigarette sales with reduced-risk alternatives. As of 2025, 41.5% of revenue came from smoke-free products; the aim is two-thirds by 2030. We forecast PMI will reach 49% by 2030, reflecting steady and sizable contributions from combustibles rather than underperformance in reduced-risk.

Philip Morris reported 2.7% organic revenue growth and 9% adjusted EPS growth excluding currency impacts in the first quarter (Correction: originally fourth quarter). International smoke-free grew 15.8% organically, and international combustibles grew 1%. The US was down 31.6%.

Philip Morris International is the world’s largest tobacco company by volume, with cigarette sales to roughly 170 countries. Despite such dominance, its goal is to completely replace its cigarette sales with reduced-risk alternatives. As of 2025, 41.5% of revenue came from smoke-free products; the aim is two-thirds by 2030. We forecast PMI will reach 53% by 2030, reflecting steady and sizable contributions from combustibles rather than underperformance in reduced-risk.

Philip Morris reported 3.7% organic revenue growth and 9% adjusted EPS growth excluding currency impacts in the fourth quarter. Its smoke-free segment grew 8.6% organically, while combustibles grew 0.3% as price increases overcame a 2.2% volume decline.

Philip Morris International is the world’s largest tobacco company by volume, with cigarette sales to roughly 170 countries. Despite such dominance, its goal is to completely replace its cigarette sales with reduced-risk alternatives. As of 2024, roughly 40% of revenue came from smoke-free products; the aim is two-thirds of revenue by 2030. This looks lofty to us; we forecast PMI will reach roughly 50% by 2029. This does not reflect our expectation for underperformance in reduced-risk, but rather the steady and sizable contributions from combustible tobacco products.

Philip Morris reported 5.9% organic revenue growth and 17.3% adjusted EPS growth excluding currency impacts in the third quarter. Smoke-free grew 13.9% organically, while combustibles grew 1% as price increases exceeded a 3.2% volume decline.

Philip Morris International is the world’s largest tobacco company by volume, with cigarette sales to roughly 170 countries. Despite such dominance, its goal is to completely replace its cigarette sales with reduced-risk alternatives. As of 2024, roughly 40% of revenue came from smoke-free products; the aim is two-thirds of revenue by 2030. This looks lofty to us; we forecast PMI will reach roughly 52% by 2029. This does not reflect our expectation for underperformance in reduced-risk, but rather the steady and sizable contributions from traditional smokable products.

Philip Morris reported 6.8% organic revenue growth and 18.9% adjusted EPS growth excluding currency impacts in the second quarter. Smoke-free grew 14.5% organically, while combustibles grew 2% as price increases exceeded 1.5% volume decline.

Philip Morris International is the world’s largest tobacco company by volume, with cigarette sales to roughly 170 countries. Despite such dominance, its goal is to completely replace its cigarette sales with reduced-risk alternatives. As of 2024, roughly 40% of revenue came from smoke-free products, though its goal of two-thirds of revenue by 2030 looks lofty and we forecast it’ll be reach roughly 51% by 2029. This does not reflect us expecting PMI to underperform in reduced-risk, but rather the steady and sizable contributions from traditional smokeable products.

Philip Morris continued to deliver strong results in its first quarter with 10% organic revenue growth and 17% adjusted EPS growth excluding currency impacts. Smoke-free grew 20% organically, while combustibles grew 4% as volumes rose despite the secular decline in smoking globally.

Philip Morris' strong 2024 results, highlighted by 10% organic revenue growth and 9% adjusted EPS growth, was driven by its reduced-risk products. Smoke-free revenue grew 17% organically and gross margins expanded 250 basis points from pricing power and the benefits of scale.

Philip Morris International is the world’s largest tobacco company by volume, with cigarette sales to roughly 170 countries. Despite such dominance, its goal is to completely replace its cigarette sales with reduced-risk alternatives. As of 2024, roughly 40% of revenue came from smoke-free products, though its goal of two-thirds of revenue by 2030 looks lofty and we forecast it’ll be reach roughly 50% by 2029. This does not reflect us expecting PMI to underperform in reduced-risk, but rather the steady and sizable contributions from traditional smokeable products.

Philip Morris ended a strong 2024 with another solid quarter, including organic net revenue growth of 7.3% and organic operating income growth of 11.8%. Management expects more of the same for 2025 with growth guidance of 6%-8% and 10.5% to 12.5%, respectively. Shares were up more than 10%.

Philip Morris reported continued strong performance in its third quarter, leading it to raise its full-year guidance. Top-line growth was broad-based across combustibles and smoke-free. The firm now expects 14%-15% adjusted earnings per share growth excluding currency, up from 11%-13%.

Philip Morris International is the world’s largest tobacco company by volume, with cigarette sales to over 175 countries. Despite such dominance, its goal is to completely replace its cigarette sales with reduced-risk alternatives. As of 2023, nearly 40% of revenue came from smoke-free products, though its goal of two-thirds of revenue by 2030 looks lofty and we forecast it’ll be nearing 50% by 2028. Still, we view this strategy positively, as it contributes to companywide growth by helping offset secular volume declines in traditional smokeable products.

Wide-moat Philip Morris International reported solid second-quarter 2024 results, leading to upgraded full-year guidance. Management now expects organic net revenue growth of 7.5%-9%, up from 7%-8.5%, with the midpoint of the range near our preearnings-call forecast of 8.3%. Better growth stems from stable cigarette and HTU volumes and the continued strength of Zyn in the US. We’re likely to raise our fair value estimate by a low-single-digit percentage, roughly in line with the market reaction, on stronger near-term volumes.

We've raised our long-term growth forecast after taking a more optimistic view of Philip Morris International's next-generation products. Our fair value estimate rises to $106 per share from $103. Our revised valuation implies a 2024 price/adjusted earnings ratio of 17 times, enterprise value/adjusted EBITDA of 14 times, and 5% dividend yield. These multiples are at the higher end of the tobacco peer group given the better long-term growth prospects its boasts.

Philip Morris International is the world’s largest tobacco company by volume, with cigarette sales to over 175 countries. Despite such dominance, its goal is to completely replace its cigarette sales with reduced-risk alternatives. As of 2023, nearly 40% of revenue came from smoke-free products, though its goal of two-thirds of revenue by 2030 looks lofty and we forecast it’ll be nearing 50% by 2028. Still, we view this strategy positively, as it contributes to companywide growth by helping offset secular volume declines in traditional smokeable products.