Company Reports

The Swiss regulator FINMA has closed its enforcement case against Julius Baer over the private debt loans and money-laundering failures. The bank has asked for approval of a share buyback, but all shareholder payments will need advanced approval by FINMA.

The strong secular trend where very wealthy individuals grow their wealth ahead of the growth in global GDP remains in place. The demand for bespoke financial planning and wealth management services will continue to be strong. However, we anticipate that fee margins will remain under pressure as competition increases with many financial services firms expanding their presence in the wealth management market.

The strong secular trend where very wealthy individuals grow their wealth ahead of the growth in global GDP remains in place. The demand for bespoke financial planning and wealth management services will continue to be strong. However, we anticipate that fee margins will remain under pressure as competition increases with many financial services firms expanding their presence in the wealth management market.

Julius Baer's first-half adjusted net profit jumped 65% as 2025's credit losses did not recur, while buoyant client trading drove revenue up 12%. Net new money of just 1% of assets under management disappointed investors, sending shares down 4% on July 21.

SpaceX has filed for one of the largest IPOs in history, with Anthropic and OpenAI expected to follow in the most significant fundraising cycle in years. No European bank holds a lead equity arranger role; that honor belongs to five US banks.

The strong secular trend where very wealthy individuals grow their wealth ahead of the growth in global GDP remains in place. The demand for bespoke financial planning and wealth management services will continue to be strong. However, we anticipate that fee margins will remain under pressure as competition increases with many financial services firms expanding their presence in the wealth management market.

The strong secular trend where very wealthy individuals grow their wealth ahead of the growth in global GDP is set to remain in place. The demand for bespoke financial planning and wealth management services will continue to be strong. However, we anticipate that fee margins will remain under pressure as competition increases with many financial services firms expanding their presence in the wealth management market.

Julius Baer reported a 12% drop in adjusted profit before tax compared with last year, entirely due to the CHF 130 million loan loss provisions it guided in May. Management expects to complete its loan book review in the coming months.

In its interim management statement for the first four months of 2025, Julius Baer disclosed solid net new money inflows, expanding gross margins, and steady cost reductions. However, the bank will book CHF 130 million in loan loss provisions, and its chief risk officer is retiring.

The strong secular trend where very wealthy individuals grow their wealth ahead of the growth in global GDP is set to remain in place. The demand for bespoke financial planning and wealth management services will continue to be strong. However, we anticipate that fee margins will remain under pressure as competition increases with many financial services firms expanding their presence in the wealth management market.

Capital markets are notoriously fickle and unforgiving. Despite delivering its second-best half-year results for the second half of 2024, Julius Baer's share price plummeted by up to 10% in early trading following the announcement on Feb. 3. Investors were likely disappointed by the absence of a new share buyback and persistently high cost/income ratio, which stands at 70%, well above the company's target of 65%.

After a disastrous second half of 2023, wide-moat Julius Baer returned to profitability in first-half 2024. The results showed no indication of further credit quality issues. While management ascribed the sharp decline in net interest income to clients switching into higher-yielding term deposits, we speculate that Julius Baer also paid more for deposits than previously. The significant loan loss provision that Julius Baer had to raise last year dented its reputation as a safe haven bank. Net new money flows from clients also reflected initial concerns, with limited inflows in January but meaningful improvements after that. The market disliked the results, with the share price down 9% on the day. Julius Baer is now trading 23% below its May 2023 high and at only 9 times our 2024 earnings estimates, a 25% discount to its long-term multiple. While it has clearly suffered reputational damage, this firm still generated a return on tangible equity of 26%. With credit risk addressed and a new CEO appointed, we view Julius Baer as attractively valued. After updating our model with the latest results, we increase our fair value estimate slightly to CHF 66 per share from CHF 65.

The strong secular trend where very wealthy individuals grow their wealth ahead of the growth in global GDP is set to remain in place. The demand for bespoke financial planning and wealth management services will continue to be strong. However, we anticipate that fee margins will remain under pressure as competition increases with many financial services firms expanding their presence in the wealth management market.

Wide-moat Julius Baer reported its worst half-year results in over a decade as the fallout from its exposure to embattled property group Signa forced it into a loss-making position for the second half of 2023. However, we applaud the decisive steps that Julius Baer has taken to address the issue. It announced a full impairment of its remaining total exposure to Signa of CHF 606 million and intends to completely exit the so-called private debt lending business of which the Signa exposure forms part. Julius Baer also confirmed that CEO Philipp Rickenbacher will step down. We took heart from the solid underlying performance and Julius Baer's unchanged medium-term guidance.

The strong secular trend where very wealthy individuals grow their wealth ahead of the growth in global GDP is set to remain in place. The demand for bespoke financial planning and wealth management services will continue to be strong. However, we anticipate that fee margins will remain under pressure as competition increases with many financial services firms expanding their presence in the wealth management market.

We are dropping coverage of some of our European banks and asset managers. We will no longer be reporting on Santander, Credit Agricole, Julius Baer, Unicredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Mediobanca, Amundi, KBC, DWS Group, BBVA, and Schroders. We provide broad coverage of more than 1,500 companies globally and periodically adjust our coverage according to investor interest and staffing.

The strong secular trend where very wealthy individuals grow their wealth ahead of the growth in global GDP is set to remain in place as asset prices continue to benefit from low interest rates. The demand for bespoke financial planning and wealth management services will continue to be strong. We do however, anticipate that fee margins will remain under pressure as competition increases with many financial services firms expanding its presence in the wealth management market.

Wide-moat Julius Baer reported a 17 % increase in net adjusted profit to CHF 508 million for the second half of 2021, missing the CHF 560 million estimate from the poll of analysts conducted by S&P Capital IQ. However, the CHF 1 billion that Julius Baer reported for fiscal 2021 was in line with our expectations and marks an all-time high for the firm. The results confirmed that trading conditions would be more challenging in 2022. Costs could prove difficult to contain in the current inflationary environment, and with revenue growth expected to slow down, the challenge for Julius Baer is clear. Julius Baer should, however, still generate significant free cash flow, and management increased the dividend payout ratio to 50% of earnings from 40% previously; it also confirmed that it would look to repurchase CHF 400 million of its shares during 2022. We estimate that this implies generous total shareholder distributions equal to around 8% of its current market value. At 10 times forward earnings, Julius Baer does not look expensive. We maintain our CHF 69 per share fair value estimate and our wide moat rating.

Wide-moat Julius Baer reported slowing revenue growth in its interim management statement for the 10 months through Oct. 30, 2021. However, we remain confident that the firm can meet our CHF 1 billion net profit estimate for 2021, which would represent a 47% year-on-year growth in earnings. The decline in the gross margin that Julius Baer earns on the assets it manages on behalf of its clients was the major disappointment in the trading update. We maintain our CHF 69 per share fair value estimate and our wide moat rating.

After updating our model, we increase our fair value estimate for Julius Baer to CHF 69 per share from CHF 57 per share previously. We keep our wide economic moat rating. On a midcycle basis we estimate that Julius Baer can generate a return on tangible equity of 20%, comfortably ahead of the 8% we estimate for its cost of capital.