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Stock Analyst Note

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust's, or MPACT's, first-quarter fiscal 2027 (ending March) distribution per unit, or DPU, declined 2.5% year on year to 1.96 Singapore cents due to foreign-exchange headwinds and the loss of contributions from divested assets, partly offset by lower finance expenses.
Stock Analyst Note

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 (ended March) results were in line with our expectations. Net property income fell 7.4% year on year to SGD 169.5 million due to the divestment of Mapletree Anson in July 2024. Positively, the net finance cost was 9.4% lower as proceeds from the divestment were used to pay down debt. However, overall distribution per unit was still 14.8% lower. After rolling our model and fine-tuning our assumptions, we retain our fair value estimate of SGD 1.60. The trust remains undervalued, trading at an attractive fiscal 2026 dividend yield of 6.7%. We continue to expect VivoCity to underpin the trust’s near-term earnings as it navigates multiple headwinds faced by its overseas assets.
Stock Analyst Note

We retain our fair value estimate of SGD 1.60 per unit for Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, or MPACT, after in-line third-quarter fiscal 2025 (ending March) results. Although the trust is currently undervalued, it continues to face challenges in China, Hong Kong, and Japan. That said, the trust now offers a fiscal 2026 distribution yield of 7%, making it an attractive option for investors willing to hold through the current downcycle.
Stock Analyst Note

We reduce our fair value estimate for Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust to SGD 1.60 per unit from SGD 1.68 after another challenging quarter that saw the trust miss our earnings expectations. Fiscal 2025 (ending March) second-quarter distribution per unit fell 11.9% year over year to SGD 0.0198 due to the absence of a one-off property tax refund, currency headwinds, and a lower contribution from overseas assets. The trust did an off-cycle valuation exercise on three Japan office assets in Makuhari, which resulted in an 18.6% revaluation loss in local currency terms. The Fujitsu Makuhari Building took the biggest hit, declining 40.9% mainly due to the nonrenewal of the lease by master tenant Fujitsu. Furthermore, weaker leasing assumptions were applied by the valuers due to current market softness. Besides trying to find replacement tenants, management is currently exploring various options such as changing the use of the buildings or divesting the properties. After updating our foreign-exchange assumptions and lowering our leasing assumptions for MPACT’s Japanese assets, we cut fiscal our 2025-27 DPU estimates by 7.3%-7.4%. While the trust continues to screen as undervalued, we expect its China, Japan, and Hong Kong portfolio to be affected by weak demand in the near term.
Stock Analyst Note

We maintain the fair value estimates of Swire Properties, CapitaLand Investment, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, or MPACT, and Link REIT after visiting their office and retail assets in Shanghai. We think China’s slowing economic growth remains a key headwind for consumer spending and business expansion. For retail malls, we note that vacancy rates for Shanghai downtown retail districts remain healthy at 5.4% as of third-quarter 2024, according to Cushman & Wakefield. This should provide some support for market rents that are being weighed down by weak retail sales performance and supply of new retail malls, albeit in the secondary retail areas. On the other hand, office rents remain soft in Shanghai given the elevated central business district vacancy rate of 16.6% as of third-quarter 2024, according to Cushman & Wakefield. While the Chinese government is looking to revive its economy with a series of policy stimulus efforts, we think that business owners and consumers may still exercise caution until they are convinced of a durable economic recovery. For landlords and REITs with mainland China exposure, our preferred pick is Swire Properties that is trading at a 29% discount to our fair value. Swire Properties remains steadfast in its long-term plan to invest in China, allocating half its HKD 100 billion investment plan to China. We expect these projects to start contributing from 2026, with the bulk of it coming from 2027.

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