Company Reports

LONGi and JA Solar posted second-quarter revenue declines of 17% and 37% year-on-year, respectively. Both remained deeply loss-making.

LONGi Green Energy Technology is one of the world's largest integrated solar companies, growing from its origins as a solar wafer manufacturer. The company is largely self-sufficient, with its solar wafers and cells produced internally. While this has helped smooth out pricing cycles along the solar supply chain, it does not exempt LONGi when the whole industry is shattered by overcapacity.

Data from China's National Energy Administration suggests that domestic solar installations fell 13% year on year in June and 66% in the first half of 2026.

LONGi Green Energy Technology is one of the world's largest integrated solar companies, growing from its origins as a solar wafer manufacturer. The company is largely self-sufficient, with its solar wafers and cells produced internally. While this has helped smooth out pricing cycles along the solar supply chain, it does not exempt LONGi when the whole industry is shattered by overcapacity.

The Chinese solar producers under our coverage—Jinko Solar, LONGi, JA Solar, Trina Solar, TCL Zhonghuan, Tongwei, and Daqo—remained loss-making through 2025 and into the first quarter of 2026.

China's solar photovoltaic sector rallied on Feb. 4 following media reports that delegations associated with Elon Musk recently visited several Chinese solar PV companies, spanning equipment, silicon wafers, cells, and modules.

The four integrated solar module producers—Jinko Solar, JA Solar, Trina Solar, and LONGi—all guided for preliminary net losses in 2025.

Chinese solar producers—Jinko Solar, JA Solar, Trina Solar, LONGi, and TCL Zhonghuan—all continued to report losses in the third quarter, except for CSI Solar, which remained profitable.

LONGi's first-half revenue fell 15% year on year, and the company continued to post operating losses.

Chinese solar producers Jinko Solar, JA Solar, Trina Solar, LONGi, Tongwei, and TCL Zhonghuan all reported losses in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. However, CSI Solar remained profitable in both quarters.

LONGi Green Energy Technology is one of world's largest integrated solar company, growing from its origins as a solar wafer manufacturer. The company is largely self-sufficient, with its solar wafers and cells produced internally. While this has helped it smooth out pricing cycles along the solar supply chain, it does not exempt LONGi when the whole industry is shattered by overcapacity.

The US Department of Commerce has issued final affirmative determinations in the anti-dumping and countervailing investigations concerning solar cells and modules from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, where Jinko, JA, Trina, LONGi, and CSI have large manufacturing capacities.

On April 9, 2025, US President Trump announced a 90-day pause and reduced the reciprocal tariff to 10% for most trading partners, including Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand, where Jinko, JA, Trina, and LONGi have large manufacturing capacity. However, the tariff rate for China has been set at 125%.

LONGi Green Energy's preliminary loss guidance of CNY 8.2 billion-CNY 8.8 billion is better than our forecast loss of CNY 9.2 billion for 2024. This range translates to a loss of CNY 1.7 billion-CNY 2.3 billion for the fourth quarter, which marks a sequential deterioration from the third quarter's loss of CNY 1.3 billion, as expected due to lower product prices.

Following LONGi's in-line third-quarter results, we made minimal adjustments to our forecasts and maintain our fair value estimate at CNY 19.40. We believe the shares are fairly valued now after a 50% rise from its September low. While still loss-making, LONGi's third quarter operating losses narrowed sequentially, aligning with our expectation that its earnings will bottom out this year. We anticipate LONGi to deliver narrower losses in 2025 and turn profitable in 2026, along with consolidation and more disciplined competition in the industry.

While LONGi's first-half CNY 5.2 billion net loss is in line with its preliminary guidance, we anticipate deeper challenges and factor in a prolonged overcapacity in the solar industry. We reduce our assumptions for LONGi’s shipment, average selling price, and gross margin for 2024-28. This leads to a wider 2024 net loss forecast of CNY 9.3 billion from our prior CNY 6.1 billion net loss forecast. We project a turnaround in 2026 but reduce our net income estimates by 32%-76% for 2026-28. As a result, we cut our fair value estimate by 24% to CNY 19.40. Despite the more dire outlook, we like no-moat LONGi at the current price level. We believe its share price has overshot market imbalance challenges.

LONGi Green Energy Technology is one of world's largest integrated solar company, growing from its origins as a solar wafer manufacturer. The company is largely self-sufficient, with its solar wafers and cells produced internally. While this has helped it smooth out pricing cycles along the solar supply chain, it does not exempt LONGi when the whole industry is shattered by overcapacity.

We see little impact on LONGi, Tongwei, and Zhonghuan from the US action to double the tariff rate on China-made solar cells (including those assembled into modules) to 50% from 25% in 2024 under Section 301. Currently, China-made solar cells and modules are already subject to US antidumping and countervailing duties, the Section 201 tariff, and the Section 301 tariff, which could add up to over 100% tariff rate. As a result, China’s direct export of solar cells and modules to the US is minimal, accounting for less than 0.1% of its total solar cells and modules export in 2023.

We cut our fair value estimate for LONGi Green Energy to CNY 25.60 from CNY 29.30 after incorporating lower solar wafer and module prices. While the losses in fourth-quarter 2023 and first-quarter 2024 are disappointing, market reaction was contained as prices appear to be bottoming. LONGi remains undervalued, but we currently prefer TCL Zhonghuan for greater upside potential.

LONGi Green Energy Technology is one of world's largest integrated solar company, growing from its origins as a solar wafer manufacturer. The company is largely self-sufficient, with its solar wafers and cells produced internally. While this has helped it smooth out pricing cycles along the solar supply chain, it does not exempt LONGi when the whole industry is shattered by overcapacity.