Company Reports

Bapcor's fiscal 2026 underlying EBITDA was AUD 153 million, down 38% on last year on 2% lower revenue. Not included in the underlying was about AUD 464 million in one-offs, mostly in noncash impairments. Shares closed 42% higher.

We expect Bapcor's earnings to turn around from fiscal 2027, thanks to favorable industry dynamics. We forecast Bapcor to resume share gains in the fragmented trade market as it rolls out stores. We forecast a double-digit EPS compound annual growth rate over the next five years as the business recovers from trough earnings in fiscal 2026, improving same-store sales growth of around 2% per year, and growing private-label penetration.

We expect a turnaround in Bapcor's earnings per share from fiscal 2027, thanks to favorable industry dynamics. We forecast Bapcor to resume share gains in the fragmented trade market as it rolls out stores. We forecast a double-digit EPS compound annual growth rate over the next five years as the business recovers from trough earnings in fiscal 2026, improving same-store sales growth of around 2% per year, and growing private-label penetration.

Bapcor's sales momentum has improved since the half-year result. But elevated fuel prices and higher interest rates are undermining this momentum. The company expects underlying fiscal 2026 EBITDA of AUD 144 million-AUD 150 million, a downgrade of about 5% at the midpoint. Shares fell 18%.

We expect a turnaround in Bapcor's earnings per share from fiscal 2027, thanks to favorable industry dynamics. We forecast Bapcor to resume share gains in the fragmented trade market as it rolls out stores. We forecast a double-digit EPS compound annual growth rate over the next five years as the business recovers from trough earnings in fiscal 2026, improving same-store sales growth of around 2% per year, and growing private-label penetration.

Earnings at Bapcor have collapsed and revenue from the core trade business is going backward. The company is guiding to fiscal 2026 underlying EBITDA of AUD 150 million to AUD 160 million, 37% lower than last year at the midpoint. Bapcor is also raising AUD 200 million in new equity.

We expect Bapcor's strong earnings per share growth to return as the competitively advantaged trade business capitalizes on favorable industry dynamics. We forecast Bapcor to resume share gains in the fragmented trade market as it rolls out stores. We forecast a double-digit EPS compound annual growth rate over the next five years as the business recovers from trough earnings in fiscal 2026, improving same-store sales growth of around 2%-3% per year and growing private-label penetration.

Bapcor's underlying EBITDA fell 40% on last year to AUD 77 million. The decline brings net debt/EBITDA at Dec. 31, 2025, to 3.4, precariously close to its 3.5 covenant. The company is raising AUD 200 million in new equity, to nearly double the share count and cut pro forma net debt/EBITDA to 1.7.

Bapcor downgraded earnings guidance again, with the core trade business to blame. The company now expects fiscal 2026 underlying net profit of AUD 44 million-AUD 49 million, down 17% at the midpoint from guidance given in October.

We expect Bapcor's strong earnings per share growth to return as the competitively advantaged trade business capitalizes on favorable industry dynamics. We forecast Bapcor to resume share gains in the fragmented trade market as it rolls out stores. We forecast a double-digit EPS compound annual growth rate over the next five years as the business recovers from trough earnings in fiscal 2026, improving same-store sales growth of around 2%-3% per year and growing private-label penetration.

Bapcor's fiscal 2026 first-quarter revenue was about 3% lower than last year. The company expects full-year underlying net profit of AUD 51 million-AUD 61 million, 30% lower than last year at the midpoint, heavily weighted to the second half.

We expect Bapcor's strong earnings growth to return as the competitively advantaged trade business capitalizes on favorable industry dynamics. We forecast Bapcor to continue to capture share in the fragmented trade market as it rolls out stores. We forecast a double-digit EPS compound annual growth rate over the next five years as the business recovers from trough earnings in fiscal 2025, improving same-store sales growth of around 2%-3% per year, and growing private-label penetration.

Bapcor's fiscal 2025 underlying net profit fell 8% to AUD 80 million. While trade is growing, it is being offset by weakness in the retail "do-it-yourself" business and disruptions to its specialist wholesale networks.

We expect Bapcor's strong earnings growth to return as the competitively advantaged trade business capitalizes on favorable industry dynamics. We forecast Bapcor continuing to capture market share in the fragmented trade market as it rolls out stores. We forecast a double-digit EPS compound annual growth rate over the next five years as the business recovers from trough earnings in fiscal 2025, buoyed same-store sales growth of around 2%-3% per year, and growing private-label penetration.

Bapcor expects to report fiscal 2025 underlying net profit of about AUD 82 million, 14%, below last year, as operating performance deteriorated over the second half. This excludes about AUD 49 million in one-off costs, mostly impairments and asset write-downs. Shares closed 28% lower on the news.

We expect Bapcor's strong earnings growth to return as the competitively advantaged trade business capitalizes on favorable industry dynamics. We forecast Bapcor continuing to capture market share in the fragmented trade market as it rolls out stores. We forecast a double-digit EPS compound annual growth rate over the next five years as the business recovers from trough earnings in fiscal 2025, buoyed same-store sales growth of around 2%-3% per year, and growing private-label penetration.

New car sales in Australia are declining. The latest data from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries has calendar year-to-date new car volumes in Australia about 5% below last year. This is a sharp deceleration from May 2024, when year-to-date new car sales were up about 12%.

Bapcor reported interim 2025 underlying EBITDA of AUD 133 million, 7% lower than last year. Earnings growth in the trade segment was offset by declines retail and specialist wholesale segments.

We expect Bapcor's strong earnings growth to return as the competitively advantaged trade business capitalizes on favorable industry dynamics. We forecast Bapcor continuing to capture market share in the fragmented trade market as it rolls out stores. We forecast a double-digit EPS compound annual growth rate over the next five years as the business recovers from trough earnings in fiscal 2024, buoyed same-store sales growth of around 2%-3% per year, and growing private-label penetration.

Bapcor's Autobarn is underperforming key peers. Low-single-digit sales declines at Autobarn in fiscal 2024 trailed Genuine Parts' Repco and Super Retail Group's Supercheap Auto at low-single-digit growth. Early trading updates indicate this weakness will continue into the first half of fiscal 2025.