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Stock Analyst Note

Frasers Logistics and Commercial Trust’s, or FLCT’s, first-half fiscal 2025 (ending September) results were below our expectations. Distribution per unit, or DPU, fell 13.8% year on year to SGD 0.03, affected by foreign currency headwinds, higher vacancies at Alexandra Technopark and 357 Collins Street, increased nonrecoverable land taxes for Victoria and Queensland in Australia, and rising finance costs due to higher interest rates and additional debt drawn for development and acquisitions.
Stock Analyst Note

Frasers Logistics and Commercial Trust’s first-quarter fiscal 2025 (ending September) business update was in line with our expectations. Management highlighted that they would like to use their debt headroom to pursue growth and may reduce some of the capital gains distribution from its divestment gains. That said, they are mindful of investors’ concern over the impact it may have on its distribution per unit, and shared that they will look to strike a balance between growth and unitholders’ return. We are cutting our fiscal 2025-27 DPU estimates by 5.3%-6.6% after lowering our capital distribution forecasts and increasing our financing cost assumptions to account for the higher for longer interest rate environment. However, our fair value estimate of SGD 1.14 per unit is retained as our key assumptions on the terminal value remain intact. We think the units are undervalued currently and like the trust’s portfolio of high-quality logistics and industrial assets in Australia, which are still enjoying favorable demand and supply dynamics.
Stock Analyst Note

Frasers Logistics and Commercial Trust’s fiscal 2024 (ending September) distribution per unit came in below our expectation due to higher-than-expected borrowing costs and management opting to take all of its second-half management fees in cash instead of units. We have pushed back our lease-up assumptions for its UK business parks given the slow progress, raised our borrowing cost forecasts, and lowered our ratio of management fees taken in units to 50% from 70%. As a result, our fiscal 2025-27 DPUs are cut by 2.9%-6.2%. We kept our fair value estimate at SGD 1.14 per unit as our key assumptions for cap rate and rents remain unchanged. We think the units are currently fairly valued and expect the potential sale of FLCT’s shares by its sponsor, Frasers Property Limited, or FPL, to be an overhang in the near term.
Stock Analyst Note

We read Frasers Logistics and Commercial Trust’s third-quarter fiscal 2024 (ending September) business update positively. Overall, it aligned with our expectations, and we retained our fair value estimate of SGD 1.14 per unit. Based on the last closing price, we think the trust is undervalued and trades at an attractive fiscal 2024 distribution yield of 7%.
Stock Analyst Note

Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust’s fiscal 2024 first-half net property income of SGD 159 million was slightly below our expectation, making up 46.9% of our full-year estimate. However, the impact on distributions per unit was offset by the distribution of SGD 13.5 million of divestment gains, and the trust’s DPU of SGD 0.0348 was in line with our expectation. The miss in the NPI was due to lower NPI margins for the commercial properties, where average occupancies remain under pressure, and higher nonrecoverable land tax for the Australian logistics and industrial properties. We cut our near-term NPI margin estimates but expect margins to recover by the end of our forecast period as the commercial assets’ occupancy rates should gradually recover. Our DPU forecasts remain broadly the same as we expect management to continue to top up its distribution with divestment gains to keep DPU relatively stable. As such, we keep our fair value estimate at SGD 1.14 per unit. Based on the current price, we think the trust is undervalued, trading at an attractive fiscal 2024 distribution yield of 7%. We think that the weakness in its commercial portfolio has been priced in, with a 24.6% decline in its unit price over the last 12 months. We like the trust for its portfolio of logistics and industrial properties that benefit from favorable supply/demand market dynamics and expect this segment, which makes up 71% of the portfolio, to drive the trust’s performance over the near to medium term.
Stock Analyst Note

Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust’s, or FLCT’s, first-quarter fiscal 2024 (ending September) business update was generally in line with our expectations. Compared with the previous quarter, the portfolio occupancy rate slightly declined to 95.8% from 96.0% due to lower occupancies at 357 Collins Street in Australia and Farnborough Business Park in the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, its logistics and industrial portfolio continues to remain 100% occupied, driven by favorable market demand and supply dynamics. First-quarter fiscal 2024’s rental reversion numbers came in very strong for its logistics and industrial portfolio at a positive 31.3%, while its commercial portfolio registered a positive 3.7%. As these indicators are largely within our expectations, we maintain our fair value estimate at SGD 1.14 per unit. Although we continue to like FLCT for its logistics exposure, which benefits from robust underlying demand supported by higher e-commerce penetration, we think the units are fairly valued at the current price.
Stock Analyst Note

Frasers Logistics and Commercial Trust's, or FLCT's, fiscal-year 2023 (ending September) results were below our expectations with net property income, or NPI, coming in 6% below our estimate. The miss is largely attributed to currency headwinds and lower-than-expected NPI margins due to higher energy and utility expenses. The trust also took a bigger-than-expected write-down on the fair value of its investment properties, writing off SGD 359 million from its balance sheet. The largest decline came from its commercial portfolio that was down 8.8% year on year due to higher vacancy rates, cap rate expansion, and translation impact. Meanwhile, its logistics and industrial portfolio's valuation was down 2.8% year on year, with cap rate expansion offset by strong rental growth of its Australian properties. While the fair value write-down is a noncash adjustment, we think it reflects a lower value that can be crystallized by the trust in the event of a divestment.

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