Company Reports

Despite higher gas prices due to the Iran war, Wyndham's US demand is stable, helped by easier comparisons (2025's government shutdown and the April 2 tariffs), the tailwinds of this year's World Cup and US economic stimulus, and the start of a multiyear artificial intelligence, onshoring, and infrastructure spending cycle. Also, we expect Wyndham Hotels & Resorts to gradually expand room share in the hotel industry and maintain a brand intangible asset and switching cost advantage. This view is supported by the company's 50% share of all US economy and midscale branded hotels (where Wyndham has a handful of the top 10 brands based on guest satisfaction, according to J.D. Power) and the industry’s fourth-largest loyalty program by membership (126 million as of March 31, 2026), which encourages third-party hotel owners to join the platform. Also, Wyndham has around 5% and 2% share of existing US and global hotel rooms, respectively, with a pipeline that represents more than 30% of its current unit base. As a result, we see room growth averaging 3% during the next 10 years (2026-35), above the 1%-2% lift we model for the US hotel industry and forecast 2% annual revenue per available room growth during this time, aided by incremental demand from increased US infrastructure (20% of 2025 gross room revenue from infrastructure workers) build out during the next several years.

Wyndham's second-quarter revenue per available room, or revPAR, decreased 1%, with US (77% of total royalty fees) up 2% and international declining 6%. The company increased its US revPAR outlook to 2% growth from 0% for the second half of 2026. Comparable adjusted EBITDA increased 3%.

Despite higher gas prices due to the Iran war, Wyndham's US demand is stable, helped by easier comparisons (2025's government shutdown and the April 2 tariffs), the tailwinds of this year's World Cup and US economic stimulus, and the start of a multiyear artificial intelligence, onshoring and infrastructure spending cycle. Additionally, we expect Wyndham Hotels & Resorts to gradually expand room share in the hotel industry and maintain a brand intangible asset and switching cost advantage. This view is supported by the company's 50% share of all US economy and midscale branded hotels (where Wyndham has a handful of the top 10 brands based on guest satisfaction, according to J.D. Power) and the industry’s fourth-largest loyalty program by membership (122 million as of Dec. 31, 2025), which encourages third-party hotel owners to join the platform. Also, Wyndham has around 5% and 2% share of existing US and global hotel rooms, respectively, with a pipeline that represents more than 30% of its current unit base. As a result, we see room growth averaging 3% during the next 10 years (2026-35), above the 1%-2% lift we model for the US hotel industry and forecast 2% annual revenue per available room growth during this time, aided by incremental demand from increased US infrastructure (20% of 2025 gross room revenue from infrastructure workers) build out during the next several years.

Wyndham's first-quarter revenue per available room decreased 1%, an improvement from last quarter's 6% drop. US revPAR was flat, up from last quarter's 8% decrease. Unit growth was 4%. Adjusted EBITDA grew 8% on timing of expenses.

We see improved revenue per available room growth in 2026 and 2027, helped by easier comparisons (2025's government shutdown and the April 2 tariffs), the tailwinds of this year's World Cup and US economic stimulus, and the start of a multiyear onshoring and infrastructure spending cycle. Additionally, we expect Wyndham Hotels & Resorts to gradually expand room share in the hotel industry and maintain a brand intangible asset and switching cost advantage. This view is supported by the company's 50% share of all US economy and midscale branded hotels (where Wyndham has a handful of the top 10 brands based on guest satisfaction, according to J.D. Power) and the industry’s fourth-largest loyalty program by membership (122 million as of Dec. 31, 2025), which encourages third-party hotel owners to join the platform. Also, Wyndham has around 5% and 2% share of existing US and global hotel rooms, respectively, with a pipeline that represents more than 30% of its current unit base. As a result, we see room growth averaging 3% during the next 10 years (2026-35), above the 1%-2% lift we model for the US hotel industry and forecast 2% annual revenue per available room growth during this time, aided by incremental demand from increased US infrastructure (20% of 2025 gross room revenue from infrastructure workers) build out during the next several years.

Wyndham's fourth-quarter revenue per available room decreased 6%, driven by an 8% decline in the US. Unit growth was 4%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 3% for the full year.

Despite near-term macroeconomic challenges for the consumer—softer employment market, depleted consumer savings—we expect Wyndham Hotels & Resorts to gradually expand room share in the hotel industry and maintain a brand intangible asset and switching cost advantage. This view is supported by the company's 50% share of all US economy and midscale branded hotels (where Wyndham has a handful of the top 10 brands based on guest satisfaction, according to J.D. Power) and the industry’s fourth-largest loyalty program by membership (121 million as of Sept. 30, 2025), which encourages third-party hotel owners to join the platform. Also, Wyndham has around 4% and 2% share of existing US and global hotel rooms, respectively, with a pipeline that represents 30% of its current unit base. As a result, we see room growth averaging over 3% during the next 10 years (2025-34), above the 1%-2% lift we model for the US hotel industry. Further, we forecast 1%-2% annual revenue per available room growth through the rest of this decade, aided by further price and occupancy increases, as well as incremental demand from increased US infrastructure (22% of 2024 gross room revenue from infrastructure workers) build out during the next several years.

Wyndham's 4%-unit growth was healthy. But shares dropped 7% as US revenue per available room, or revPAR, decreased 5%, driven by lower-income households being strained by economic uncertainty. As a result, 2025 revPAR guidance was lowered to declines of 2%-3% from down 2% to up 1%.

Despite near-term macroeconomic challenges for the consumer—still-elevated inflation, depleted consumer savings - we expect Wyndham Hotels & Resorts to gradually expand room share in the hotel industry and maintain a brand intangible asset and switching cost advantage. This view is supported by the company's 50% share of all US economy and midscale branded hotels (where Wyndham has a handful of the top 10 brands based on guest satisfaction, according to J.D. Power) and the industry’s fourth-largest loyalty program by membership (120 million as of June 30, 2025), which encourages third-party hotel owners to join the platform. Also, Wyndham has around 4% and 2% share of existing US and global hotel rooms, respectively, with a pipeline that represents 30% of its current unit base. As a result, we see room growth averaging over 3% during the next 10 years (2025-34), above the 1%-2% lift we model for the US hotel industry. Further, we forecast 2%-3% annual revenue per available room growth through the rest of this decade, aided by further price and occupancy increases, as well as incremental demand from increased US infrastructure (22% of 2024 gross room revenue from infrastructure workers) build out during the next several years.

Wyndham's second-quarter revenue per available room, or revPAR, decreased 3%, with its core US market falling 4%. Unit and pipeline growth were up 4% and 5%, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA was up 5% on a comparable basis.

Despite near-term macroeconomic challenges for the consumer—still-elevated inflation, depleted consumer savings - we expect Wyndham Hotels & Resorts to gradually expand room share in the hotel industry and maintain a brand intangible asset and switching cost advantage. This view is supported by the company's 50% share of all US economy and midscale branded hotels (where Wyndham has a handful of the top 10 brands based on guest satisfaction, according to J.D. Power) and the industry’s fourth-largest loyalty program by membership (115 million as of March 31, 2025), which encourages third-party hotel owners to join the platform. Also, Wyndham has around 5% and 2% share of existing US and global hotel rooms, respectively, with a pipeline that represents 28% of its current unit base. As a result, we see room growth averaging over 3% during the next 10 years (2025-34), above the 1%-2% lift we model for the US hotel industry. Further, we forecast 2%-3% annual revenue per available room growth through the rest of this decade, aided by further price and occupancy increases, as well as incremental demand from increased US infrastructure (22% of 2024 gross room revenue from infrastructure workers) build out during the next several years.

Wyndham's first-quarter revenue per available room, or revPAR, increased 2%, on higher pricing that was offset by weak demand amid a tough economic backdrop beginning in March. Macro uncertainty prompted the firm to lower its 2025 revPAR guidance to down 2% to up 1% from 2%-3% growth.

Despite near-term macroeconomic challenges for the consumer—still-elevated inflation, depleted consumer savings - we expect Wyndham Hotels & Resorts to gradually expand room share in the hotel industry and maintain a brand intangible asset and switching cost advantage. This view is supported by the company's 50% share of all US economy and midscale branded hotels (where Wyndham has a handful of the top 10 brands based on guest satisfaction, according to J.D. Power) and the industry’s fourth-largest loyalty program by membership (114 million as of Dec. 31, 2024), which encourages third-party hotel owners to join the platform. Also, Wyndham has around 5% and 2% share of existing US and global hotel rooms, respectively, with a pipeline that represents 28% of its current unit base. As a result, we see room growth averaging over 3% during the next 10 years (2025-34), above the 1%-2% lift we model for the US hotel industry. Further, we forecast about 3% annual revenue per available room growth through the rest of this decade, aided by further price and occupancy increases, as well as incremental demand from increased US infrastructure (22% of 2024 gross room revenue from infrastructure workers) build out during the next several years.

While narrow-moat Wyndham’s fourth-quarter results matched our estimates, the key takeaway was a pickup in infrastructure-related room nights and ongoing leisure demand into 2025 as well as a growing pipeline of higher premium rooms. As a result, we expect to increase our $93 per share valuation by a mid-single-digit percentage to reflect a more constructive intermediate-term outlook, with our 2026-28 revenue per available room, or revPAR, estimate moving up toward 4% on average from 3% previously. Even when factoring in this higher fair value estimate, we see shares as slightly overvalued.

Despite near-term macroeconomic challenges for the consumer—still-elevated inflation, depleted consumer savings - we expect Wyndham Hotels & Resorts to gradually expand room share in the hotel industry and maintain a brand intangible asset and switching cost advantage. This view is supported by the company's roughly 40% share of all US economy and midscale branded hotels (where Wyndham has a handful of the top 10 brands based on guest satisfaction, according to J.D. Power) and the industry’s fourth-largest loyalty program by membership (112 million as of Sept. 30, 2024), which encourages third-party hotel owners to join the platform. Also, Wyndham has around 10% and 5% share of existing US and global hotel rooms, respectively, with a pipeline that represents 28% of its current unit base. As a result, we see room growth averaging over 3%-4% during the next 10 years (2024-33), above the 1%-2% lift we model for the US hotel industry. Further, we forecast about 3% annual revenue per available room growth through the rest of this decade, aided by further price and occupancy increases, as well as incremental demand from increased US infrastructure (22% of 2023 gross room revenue from infrastructure workers) build out during the next several years.

Narrow-moat Wyndham Hotels & Resorts' shares rose 9% in Oct. 24 intraday trading as the company outlined the benefits of ancillary revenue, infrastructure demand, and easing comparisons. While our 2025 forecast for revenue per available room growth of 2.5% already accounts for easing comparisons, we plan to increase our 2025-30 sales estimates for incremental ancillary and US infrastructure opportunities. As a result, we plan to increase our $85 fair value estimate by around a high-single-digit percentage. The shares appear slightly undervalued, even reflecting the expected increase in our valuation.

Despite near-term macroeconomic challenges for the consumer—still-elevated inflation, depleted consumer savings, we expect Wyndham Hotels & Resorts to gradually expand room share in the hotel industry and maintain a brand intangible asset and switching cost advantage. This view is supported by the company's roughly 40% share of all US economy and midscale branded hotels (where Wyndham has a handful of the top 10 brands based on guest satisfaction, according to J.D. Power) and the industry’s fourth-largest loyalty program by membership (110 million as of June 30, 2024), which encourages third-party hotel owners to join the platform. Also, Wyndham has around 10% and 5% share of existing US and global hotel rooms, respectively, with a pipeline that represents around 28% of its current unit base. As a result, we see room growth averaging over 3%-4% during the next 10 years (2024-33), above the 1%-2% lift we model for the US hotel industry. Further, we forecast around 2% annual revenue per available room growth through the rest of this decade, aided by further price and occupancy increases, as well as incremental demand from increased US infrastructure build out.

Despite normalizing revenue per available room growth of 2% in constant currency versus 8% in 2023—roughly in line with historical (1988-2019) average in the US economy/midscale segments—Wyndham shares moved up 7% during July 25 trading. We attribute this to signs that the brand (primary source of its narrow moat) is well intact, combined with solid EBITDA performance.

Despite near-term macroeconomic challenges for the consumer—still-elevated inflation, depleted consumer savings, we expect Wyndham Hotels & Resorts to gradually expand room share in the hotel industry and maintain a brand intangible asset and switching cost advantage. This view is supported by the company's roughly 40% share of all US economy and midscale branded hotels (where Wyndham has a handful of the top 10 brands based on guest satisfaction, according to J.D. Power) and the industry’s fourth-largest loyalty program by membership (108 million as of March 31, 2024), which encourages third-party hotel owners to join the platform. Also, Wyndham has around 10% and 5% share of existing US and global hotel rooms, respectively, with a pipeline that represents around 28% of its current unit base. As a result, we see room growth averaging over 3%-4% during the next 10 years (2024-33), above the 1%-2% lift we model for the US hotel industry. Further, we forecast around 3% annual revenue per available room growth through the rest of this decade, aided by further price and occupancy increases, as well as incremental demand from increased US infrastructure build out.

Narrow-moat Wyndam’s global constant-currency revenue per available room increased just 1% in the first quarter as the hotelier faced its hardest comparison of the year (12% growth) as well as calendar and weather headwinds. We still believe Wyndham will achieve its 2%-3% constant-currency revPAR growth target for the year, driven by easing comparisons and international demand. In fact, revenue on the books for May is pacing up 7%. We don’t plan a material change to our $88 fair value estimate and think Wyndham’s current 11.5 times forward enterprise value/EBITDA multiple should expand to be closer to narrow-moat peer Choice’s 13 times given similar competitive positioning and growth opportunities.