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Stock Analyst Note

Narrow-moat Bausch & Lomb's first-quarter results showed some resilience, including 3.5% revenue growth, but two major factors sank shares: a recall and potential tariff effects. Despite management raising revenue guidance by $50 million at the midpoint, it lowered its EBITDA outlook by $50 million, suggesting a 17.3% margin at the midpoint and a 120-basis-point reduction from the previous guidance. After updating our model for these trends and baking in a weaker US dollar versus the Canadian dollar, we have lowered our fair value estimate to CAD 24.50 ($17.50) per share from CAD 28.00 ($20). While we still view shares as moderately undervalued for the risk, the market reaction to today’s results signals the weakening level of conviction investors have in the name against a difficult macro environment, a high degree of uncertainty from tariffs, and the enVista recall potentially damaging the brand’s reputation in key markets.
Stock Analyst Note

On April 2, President Donald Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs on all imports ranging from 10% to varying reciprocal rates, effective on April 5. In response, the broad vision care market opened on April 3 about a mid-single-digit percent down from April 2’s close and firms under our coverage—Alcon, Bausch & Lomb, Carl Zeiss, and Cooper Companies—are all trading at the level or lower at the time of writing.
Stock Analyst Note

Narrow-moat Bausch&Lomb reported solid fourth-quarter earnings and delivered a strong finish to the year. Revenue came in at $1.3 billion, beating out our expected $1.2 billion, and delivered 9.1% year-on-year growth. Healthy performance was seen across the board as all three segments contributed nicely to the top line. We maintain our fair value estimate of $20 per share and slightly raise our Canadian fair value estimate to CAD 28 from CAD 27.50 to reflect a strengthening US dollar.
Stock Analyst Note

Narrow-moat Bausch & Lomb announced Feb. 6 that the potential takeover process has now ended and the firm will not go through a transaction at this time. This disappointed investors who were hopeful that potential buyers would pay a premium, with some sources suggesting interested parties were prepared to offer a bid of up to $25 per share, sent shares down roughly 10%. We maintain our favorable long-term outlook for the firm and maintain our fair value estimate of $20 (CAD 27.50) per share.
Stock Analyst Note

The Financial Times reported on Dec. 10, 2024, that Blackstone's interest in making a bid for the narrow-moat Bausch & Lomb has cooled. It was reported in October that Blackstone joined TPG to explore submitting a joint bid for Bausch at the potential offer of $25 per share, or about $14 billion in enterprise value, but it now looks like Blackstone believes the price tag is too high for the target. The same news source also noted that a deal could still progress if Bausch were willing to accept a lower price or TPG teams up with a different partner for a joint bid.
Stock Analyst Note

Narrow-moat Bausch & Lomb reported solid third-quarter earnings that came in a tad higher than our expectations. Total sales of $1.2 billion were up 18.8% year over year driven by growth from all three segments. Regionally, both US and international delivered double-digit gains as solid execution shined across markets. BL also made solid strides improving margins during the quarter as cooling inflationary pressures and cost management expanded bottom line. After inching up our full-year estimates and accounting for time value of money, we raise our fair value estimate to $20 (CAD 27.50) per share from $19 (CAD 26).
Stock Analyst Note

The Financial Times reported on Sept. 14 that Bausch & Lomb is working with advisors to explore a sale. Bausch & Lomb went public in 2022 but is still about 88% owned by its parent company, Bausch Health, and the full separation was supposed to take place with necessary approvals once Bausch Health reached certain leverage targets. At the end of June, Bausch Health had over $20 billion in debt ($15.7 billion excluding Bausch & Lomb’s debt) with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of around $3.1 billion ($2.4 billion excluding Bausch & Lomb), putting the firm’s leverage ratio at about 6.4.

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