Equifax's credit-score pricing counterpunch draws praise for potential profit boost

By Steve Gelsi

Credit bureau's stock extends bounce with new pricing move, after falling last week due to rival FICO's pricing plan

Equifax's stock price is moving up after it announced discounted pricing on its VantageScore credit score product.

Equifax's stock rose Wednesday after the credit bureau drew praise for the new discounted pricing scheme for its VantageScore credit-rating product aimed at competing with that of rival Fair Isaac Corp.

Equifax's (EFX) decision to offer its VantageScore mortgage credit scores at $4.50 each for two years - more than 50% below rival Fair Isaac's (FICO) FICO product - along with its free VantageScore pricing for auto, mortgage and card consumers who purchase FICO scores, may help the company steal market share, analysts said.

Equifax's stock was up 1.8% on Wednesday after bouncing 2.4% over the past three sessions. Fair Isaac shares fell 9.6%.

Equifax's response came after its stock dropped 8.5% on Oct. 2 to its lowest closing price since April 21 on the heels of a discounted FICO pricing-structure announcement.

Also read: Credit-bureau stocks like Equifax's are getting hammered as FICO moves to directly license mortgage scores.

Analysts offered different projections on the potential boost to Equifax's bottom line from the new pricing structure.

BMO analyst Ryan Griffin projected about $11 million more in profit, after breaking out markup fees, from Equifax's discounted VantageScore pricing.

"While it's possible the wider price differential alongside [Equifax's] bundling of a free VantageScore through 2026 could catalyze some switching, we acknowledge limited switching thus far despite VantageScore's long history," Griffin said.

William Blair analyst Andrew Nicholas was much more optimistic, saying the $4.50 pricing for VantageScore "represents a meaningful opportunity for increased profit" for the company.

If all potential customers switch to VantageScore, Equifax could realize $100 million of profit if mortgage activity remains at 2025 levels, or even up to $200 million if mortgages recover, he said.

Nicholas said his convictions about the appeal of Equifax and TransUnion (TRU) "remain unchanged."

He reiterated his outperform rating on Equifax's stock, while BMO's Griffin kept his rating at market perform.

As of Tuesday's close, Equifax's stock had fallen 6.6% in 2025, TransUnion's stock had dropped 17.7% and FICO's shares had lost 5.6%, while the S&P 500 SPX had advanced 14.2%.

-Steve Gelsi

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10-08-25 1251ET