These stocks are surging as the next hot play on the Iran war

By Tomi Kilgore and Philip van Doorn

Alcoa's stock is having its best day in months, as aluminum prices jump after two large Middle East sites were hit by Iranian missiles

Alcoa's stock rallied Monday after Iranian missile strikes on two large Middle East aluminum sites sent prices of the industrial metal higher.

Share of Alcoa surged Monday, heading toward their best day in months, as aluminum became the next commodity to have its moment after two large Middle East facilities were hit with Iranian missiles over the weekend.

The rally comes after Alcoa's stock (AA), which enjoyed a banner 2025, had mostly stalled this year. It was down for the month, since the Iran war started, until Iran hit Emirates Global Aluminium's Al Taweelah site in the United Arab Emirates and the Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) site in Bahrain on Saturday.

Those strikes sent aluminum futures surging 4.2% in recent trading Monday.

And Alcoa's stock shot up 11.8% in morning trades toward its biggest one-day gain since it soared 12.6% on Oct. 23, 2025. With the gain, the stock has now advanced 4.5% in March.

J.P. Morgan analyst William Peterson wrote in a recent note to clients that roughly a third of Alcoa's alumina capacity is contracted to "key players" in the Middle East, including EGA and Alba.

Shares of other aluminum producers also enjoyed healthy gains in morning trading Monday.

Century Aluminum's stock (CENX) climbed 10% toward its best day since early November, and was now up 5.9% this month.

Kaiser Aluminum shares (KALU) rose 3.7%, but were still down 8.8% in March.

Alcoa's stock has now rocketed 111.5% over the past 12 months, buoyed by the tariffs on imported aluminum implemented by the Trump administration. Century shares have run up 194.3% over the past year, and Kaiser's stock has hiked up 91.3%.

And Alcoa's stock was treading cheaply on a forward price/earnings basis. At a Monday morning price of $65.30, the stock traded at 10.3 times the consensus 12-month earnings-per-share estimate of $6.32 among analysts working for brokerage and research firms polled by LSEG. That rolling 12-month EPS estimate was up from $4.88 as of Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

Through Friday, Alcoa's five-year average forward P/E ratio was 27.4, while its 10-year average forward P/E was 23.6, according to LSEG.

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-Tomi Kilgore -Philip van Doorn

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03-30-26 1055ET