Walmart and Target are about to reveal the health of the U.S. consumer

By Bill Peters

Earnings reports from the two major retailers will show how shoppers are holding up in an era of persistent inflation

Walmart reports results on Thursday, with earnings from Target arriving a day before.

Second-quarter earnings so far might be among the strongest on record - but companies like retailers and hotels haven't been major contributors to the blowout performance.

Analysts at Seaport Research noted Friday that the collective earnings per share for S&P 500 SPX companies is expected to jump 53.1% for the second quarter, helped by massive one-time gains from companies like Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) that came in large part from their investments in Anthropic.

But the research firm said that even without those unrealized gains, "this would still be the strongest season on record, save postrecessionary rebounds." Higher oil prices (CL00) (BRN00) due to the Iran war have also lifted the bottom line for the energy sector XX:SP500.10, which in turn has boosted revenue for the S&P 500 overall.

Meanwhile, BofA analysts, in a note last Sunday, said that consumer-oriented companies like retailers have trailed other sectors, with median EPS growth of 7% in the consumer-discretionary sector XX:SP500.25 and 9% in consumer staples XX:SP500.30. Those two sectors were among the three weakest overall, the BofA analysts noted.

That assessment comes ahead of earnings reports this week from Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT), which will offer a glimpse into the behavior of inflation-fatigued shoppers. Target reports results on Wednesday, while Walmart reports on Thursday.

Last time around, Walmart said people were putting less gas in their tanks as they tried to manage higher costs of living. The chain's CFO said at the time that this sort of behavior was "an indication of stress." Meanwhile, Target faced skepticism over its turnaround efforts, as consumers prioritize basic essentials over clothing and home decor.

The BofA analysts said that the bank's own card data suggested lower-income consumers were recovering, although they said commentary from companies was still mixed.

"The younger cohort, the lower-income cohort, they really have improved the most compared to everyone else," Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) CFO Adam Rymer said on the fast-casual restaurant chain's earnings call last month.

Meanwhile, hotel chain Hilton Worldwide (HLT) said on its quarterly earnings call last month that the middle class was "getting back in the game." Visa (V), meanwhile, said it hadn't seen signs of weaker spending.

Others on recent earnings calls expressed deeper reservations. Clorox (CLX) said "all consumers" were still seeking discounts. And Procter & Gamble (PG) pointed to an ongoing divide among consumers, with wealthier shoppers spending and lower-income ones struggling.

"The more-pressured consumer, that will be more impacted by gas prices or incremental $100 of gas cost per week, they continue to look for smaller pack sizes," Procter & Gamble CFO Andre Schulten said last month. "They continue to be very affected by promotion patterns. So none of that has changed."

-Bill Peters

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08-16-26 0700ET