SpaceX's next big growth engine isn't rockets - it's this play on AI power, analysts say

By William Gavin

The company has a lucrative opportunity in letting rivals tap its data centers for computing power

A TD Cowen analyst just assigned a buy rating and $200 price target on SpaceX's stock.

Selling rivals access to its data centers will likely be a lucrative opportunity for SpaceX, according to a new team of upbeat analysts.

SpaceX (SPCX) has become a major seller of computing power, a key resource necessary for artificial-intelligence companies to develop their models. Major companies including Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Anthropic have signed on to spend billions of dollars with SpaceX, according to regulatory filings.

In a note to clients on Monday, TD Cowen analysts led by John Blackledge called that business the "biggest near-term driver" of revenue for the company, citing the AI industry's major supply-and-demand imbalance. Blackledge initiated coverage on SpaceX's stock with a buy rating and a $200 price target, implying room for a 37% increase compared to Monday's closing price.

TD Cowen expects that 35% of SpaceX's sales in 2026 could come from areas related to selling computing power, and that this part of the business could even outperform Starlink, SpaceX's "crown jewel," by the first quarter of 2027. By 2028, Blackledge's team forecasts that AI computing-power leases will account for 65% of SpaceX's overall revenue.

However, estimating the current scale of SpaceX's computing business can be difficult. Of the five customers disclosed by the company, the identities of only three have been publicly confirmed: Anthropic, Google and startup Reflection AI.

A fourth customer, revealed in July, is speculated by some analysts to be the U.S. Defense Department. SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen also announced a new computing deal earlier this month that will take begin in December.

Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu estimates the five signed customers are worth $54.5 billion in revenue run rate, a metric that companies use to estimate full-year revenue based on performance over a short period of time. SpaceX aims to have a $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026.

"With more capacity coming online, we expect at least a few more large deals to materialize given industry constraints," Yu said in a Monday note to clients, pointing to recent targets announced by CEO Elon Musk to expand SpaceX's data centers. Yu rates SpaceX's stock as a buy with a $235 price target.

Close to half of SpaceX's planned computing capacity will likely be rented out to other companies over the next few years, according to Blackledge. The remainder is expected to be dedicated to backing SpaceX's internal efforts as the company works on developing new models and products, such as its AI agents.

-William Gavin

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09-28-26 1803ET