Dan Romanoff, CPA

Dan Romanoff, CPA, was a senior equity research analyst on the technology team for Morningstar.

More From Dan Romanoff

We are maintaining our fair value estimate for wide-moat Amazon AMZN at $4,100 per share and we still view shares as undervalued. We think the highlight of the quarter was Amazon's plan to raise prices in the U.S. on Prime.

Morningstar's analyst says Salesforce's stock price is right for one of the best growth stories in software.

Microsoft remains impressive in its ability to drive both growth and margins at scale and we think there is more to come on both fronts. We see results as reinforcing our thesis centering on the proliferation of hybrid cloud environments and Azure, as the firm continues to use its on-premises dominance to allow customers to move to the cloud easily and at their own pace.

Morningstar's analyst says Prime may be the secret sauce for e-commerce, but AWS and advertising will fuel growth.

Non-GAAP operating margin was strong at 19.8%, flat compared to last year but more than 200 basis points ahead of our model. We remain more constructive than ever on the company's long-term margin potential, including 100 basis points of annual expansion, given management's recent focus and strong results in the face of the Slack acquisition.

We don’t see issues with the long-term story as Amazon remains well positioned to prosper from the secular shift toward e-commerce and the public cloud over the next decade, but we do see a modest reset in terms of growth and profitability through the next several quarters.

Quarterly strength and good guidance drive our fair value estimate to $345 from $325 per share and we continue to see upside to this high-quality name.

Although we expect increasing cloud penetration and an evolving product suite to lead to healthy long-term growth, we are maintaining our fair value estimate for Splunk at $164 per share due to near-term cloud transition-related top-line pressures.

We are raising our fair value estimate for wide-moat Salesforce to $292 per share, from $273, based on quarterly strength and higher guidance, and continue to see shares as undervalued.

Wide-moat Amazon AMZN reported second-quarter results that were within its guidance range but were slightly short of investor expectations for both revenue and operating profit.

Wide-moat ServiceNow delivered strong results. After adjusting our model for results and guidance, we are raising our fair value estimate to $630, from $587.

Quarterly strength along with upside to guidance and the annual roll of our DCF model drive our fair value estimate to $325 from $278 per share. We continue to see upside to this high-quality name from here.

Wide-moat Adobe reported strong second-quarter results, including upside to guidance for revenue and non-GAAP EPS, and provided a better-than-expected third-quarter outlook.

Given exceptional results and strong guidance, we are once again raising our estimates, which drives our fair value estimate to $245 per share from $223. We still view shares as overvalued.

More About Dan Romanoff

Dan Romanoff, CPA, was a senior equity analyst, technology, for Morningstar. He covers software, including Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow, and Amazon.com, among others, and also serves on Morningstar’s Moat Committee.

Before Joining Morningstar in 2019, Romanoff spent 12 years in buy-side equity research covering the technology and telecommunications sectors, most recently at Holland Capital Management. Before that, he spent five years in sell-side equity research as an associate analyst at UBS and a senior analyst at Credit Suisse covering various areas within technology, including hardware, software, and semiconductors. Romanoff also has worked as an auditor and in valuation services for major public accounting firms.

Romanoff holds a bachelor’s degree in accountancy and a Master of Business Administration in finance from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign’s Gies College of Business. He also holds the Certified Public Accountant designation.

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