Preston Caldwell

More From Preston Caldwell

Brick-and-Mortar Retail Isn’t Going Away

Robust e-commerce sales by traditional retailers during the COVID-19 pandemic create a lasting role for physical stores.

Preston Caldwell May 27, 2021

2021 Inflation Forecast Heads Higher

Supply-side pressures are behind our increase for this year.

Preston Caldwell May 25, 2021

What Corporate Tax Rate Hikes Could Mean for Stocks

We expect a mid-single-digit impact to average U.S. equity valuations.

Preston Caldwell May 17, 2021

We're Expecting Higher GDP Growth--and Higher Inflation Too

We've increased our U.S. GDP growth forecast.

Preston Caldwell Apr 21, 2021

Economic Outlook: U.S. Will Be Ready to Restart After Mass Vaccination

Consumers are ready to spend.

Preston Caldwell Apr 1, 2021

Why More Stimulus Can Do Only So Much for the U.S. Economy

Productive capacity, not stimulus, is what drives the economy’s long-term potential GDP.

Preston Caldwell Mar 11, 2021

How Record Fiscal Stimulus Has Boosted the U.S. Economy

Despite stubbornly high unemployment, we have reason to believe fiscal stimulus has helped household finances hold up across all income levels.

Preston Caldwell Mar 4, 2021

When Will the U.S. Economy Recover?

The U.S. economic recovery paused at the end of 2020, but it will soon be ready for liftoff.

Preston Caldwell Feb 24, 2021

How The Past Can Shed Light on the Post-COVID Economy

Preston Caldwell Jan 29, 2021

Economic Outlook: We Remain Optimistic for a Rapid Recovery

A lot is riding on the coronavirus vaccine.

Preston Caldwell Jan 4, 2021

What if Democrats Sweep the Georgia Senate Runoffs?

A narrow majority may pass new stimulus and raise the corporate business tax.

Preston Caldwell Dec 8, 2020

What History Can Teach Us About the Post-COVID Economy

How habits, fear, and sunk costs can reshape economic behavior.

Preston Caldwell Nov 17, 2020

Energy Stocks Surge on Positive Vaccine News

But plenty of upside remains.

Preston Caldwell Nov 10, 2020

What Could We Expect From a Biden Presidency?

The Democrat's platform proposes major new spending programs, including healthcare, clean/renewable energy, infrastructure, and education, among others.

David Sekera, CFA Nov 4, 2020

We Still Expect a Strong U.S. Economic Recovery

Neither the U.S. election outcome nor the coronavirus third wave will derail it.

Preston Caldwell Nov 3, 2020

What Could a Democratic Clean Sweep Mean for Policy, Taxes, and the Economy?

Macroeconomic impact will likely be muted, and the boost in taxes and spending won't be unprecedented.

Preston Caldwell Oct 30, 2020

How Could the Election Impact U.S. Equities?

In the event of a Biden win, aftertax earnings could take a hit from higher corporate taxes.

Preston Caldwell Oct 30, 2020

Economic Outlook: We Don't Think the Market's Too Optimistic

We forecast a strong long-run U.S. recovery.

Preston Caldwell Oct 8, 2020

Avoiding a Long-Term Financial Crisis After COVID-19

Our research analysts suspect that we've safely averted much of what would result in a long-term financial crisis during the COVID-19 economic downturn.

Preston Caldwell Aug 31, 2020

It's Not the 2008 Global Recession All Over Again

Risks are far lower than during the last U.S. financial crisis, despite COVID-19's impact.

Preston Caldwell Aug 20, 2020

We're Forecasting a Strong Long-Run Economic Recovery

We don't think the market's engaging in irrational exuberance.

Preston Caldwell Jun 30, 2020

How Fast Can the U.S. Economy Recover From COVID-19?

We project a much quicker (and more complete) recovery than the one after the Great Recession.

Preston Caldwell Jun 22, 2020

How Is the U.S. Economy Handling COVID-19 So Far?

Fiscal stimulus is already substantially boosting economic activity.

Preston Caldwell Jun 19, 2020

Morningstar Talks COVID-19 Economic Impact, Vaccines

Preston Caldwell Jun 10, 2020

Projecting Coronavirus' Long-Run Economic Impact

We've updated our near-term GDP forecast and look to previous recessions for longer-term guidance.

Preston Caldwell May 14, 2020

Epic Oil Crash Sets Up Brutal Downturn for Energy Sector

But recovery is inevitable, and stocks look very cheap--just watch out for bankruptcy risk.

Preston Caldwell Apr 27, 2020

Will Energy Stocks Rise From the Ashes?

Preston Caldwell Apr 8, 2020

Coronavirus Update: Long-Term Economic Impact Forecast to Be Less Than 2008 Recession

Our outlook on how the U.S. will cope during and after the shutdown.

Preston Caldwell Apr 1, 2020

Market, Economic Implications Amid Latest Virus News

Karen Andersen, CFA Mar 16, 2020

Lowering Oilfield Services Fair Values

Four companies look extremely cheap even after the fair value reduction, trading an average 70% below our fair value estimate.

Preston Caldwell Mar 10, 2020

Preston Caldwell is senior US economist for Morningstar.* He leads the research team's views on US macroeconomic issues, including gross domestic product growth, inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy.

Previously, Caldwell served as a member of the energy sector team, covering oilfield-services stocks and helping to craft Morningstar's long-term oil price forecasts.

Caldwell holds a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Arkansas and earned his Master of Business Administration from Rice University.

*Morningstar Research Services LLC (“Morningstar”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc.