Corning: Meta Deal Greatly Expands Our Fiber Growth Expectations

Key Morningstar Metrics for Corning

• Fair Value Estimate: $95.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High

Corning GLW and Meta Platforms META announced a long-term supply agreement for optical fiber cable, targeting up to $6 billion in sales through 2030. Corning will expand its optical fiber capacity in North Carolina significantly. The company will release its fourth-quarter results on Jan. 28.

Why it matters: This $6 billion in revenue over the next five years materially eclipses our prior total fiber growth expectations. We modeled $5 billion in annual fiber sales growth in 2030 versus 2025; we expect most of the $6 billion for Meta to be incremental to that forecast.

• Investors concerned about the longevity of artificial intelligence infrastructure demands may notice the agreement is “up to” $6 billion, with no explicit guarantee from Meta. We expect safeguards in the deal to protect Corning’s supply investment, but we look for more detail on the earnings call.
• As the global low-cost producer of optical fiber with a leading market share in North America, Corning is a key provider of AI infrastructure. Customer-specific public deals like this, akin to what we’ve seen from chipmakers, bolster our view on the durability of AI growth for Corning.

The bottom line: We raise our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Corning to $95 per share from $60, with $5 billion in incremental sales through 2030. We raise our Morningstar Uncertainty Rating to High from Medium to account for AI spending risk. Shares rose 15% intraday on Jan. 27 and look modestly overvalued.

• To justify a stock price near $110, investors must expect the $6 billion deal to be fully incremental and hold confidence in no AI spending correction in the next five years. As the stock has more than doubled in 12 months, we find it pricing in a bull case.
• Our updated fiber forecast is for $10 billion in new annual revenue in 2030 compared with 2025. We expect Corning to generate mid-teens sales growth through 2030, up from high single digits. Our implied 2026 price/earnings multiple of 30 looks justified with 20% earnings growth.