Morningstar

Ford Earnings: Guidance Suspended Over Tariff Uncertainty

Ford expects 2025 gross tariff costs of $2.5 billion and adjusted EBIT to be down $1.5 billion.

A general view of the Ford logo on a vehicle.
Robert Cianflone via Getty
Securities in This Article
Ford Motor Co
(F)

Ford’s F stock fell over 2% in May 5, 2025 after-hours trading after reporting first-quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $0.14, down 71% year over year but ahead of the $0.02 LSEG consensus. Ford also suspended all guidance due to uncertainties over tariffs and US tax and emission policies.

Why it matters: We see Ford pulling its guidance while GM gave new guidance including tariffs on May 1 as the reason the stock was down after hours. We are surprised Ford did not match GM’s messaging by updating guidance, but the current tariff policy environment is highly uncertain.

  • Even though Ford suspended guidance, it did say it expects 2025 gross tariff costs of $2.5 billion and adjusted EBIT down $1.5 billion net of cost mitigation efforts, such as using bonded freight carriers to ship vehicles and parts to Canada from Mexico.
  • Like GM, Ford sees improved industry pricing for 2025, now flat for the full year instead of down about 2%, thanks to a 1%-1.5% rise in the second half of 2025 due to tariffs. CEO Jim Farley, however, stressed Ford will remain aggressive on its pricing, such as offering employee pricing.

The bottom line: Our Ford fair value estimate of $16 per share and no-moat rating are unchanged, but we revise our 2025 adjusted EBIT forecast to about $6 billion, down from $7.5 billion in our Feb. 10 model that had no tariff impact. We model about $3.8 billion less EBIT over our forecast period.

  • It is encouraging to hear Ford say that, excluding tariff costs, year-over-year expenses fell for the third straight quarter and that 2025 warranty expenses are better than budgeted so far. We think profits will eventually improve at Ford when expense control is mastered, but that is a ways off.
  • Despite the guidance suspension, we don’t believe Ford’s quarterly dividend is in danger from tariff damage. About $27 billion in automotive cash and securities plus $45.3 billion of liquidity with credit lines, in our view, should preserve the nearly $2.4 billion annual payout.

Editor’s Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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