Going Into Earnings, Is Palantir Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?

Palantir Technologies is set to release its third-quarter earnings report on Nov. 4. Here’s Morningstar’s take on what to look for in Palantir’s earnings and stock.

Key Morningstar Metrics for Palantir Technologies

• Fair Value Estimate: $19.00
• Morningstar Rating: 1 star
• Economic Moat: Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High

Earnings Release Date

• Monday, Nov. 4, after the close of trading

What to Watch for in Palantir’s Q3 Earnings

• Over the last few quarters, Palantir has reported a material uptick in customer interest in article-level metrics, resulting in strong US commercial revenue and customer count growth. At the same time, we think investors expect this growth to accelerate, which we are unsure about. Management commentary on this front, especially regarding how customers in Europe or the government are adopting ALP, would be helpful.
• Similarly, we’d expect an uptick in customers as companies onboard Palantir due to their desire to leverage artificial intelligence. We’ll be looking at commercial clients in particular, as they would be the perfect target audience.
• When a stock trades at a multiple as high as Palantir’s, it’s priced for perfection. In terms of numbers, this boils down to quarterly results, guidance for the upcoming quarter, and management commentary on the business pipeline, with specific factors such as remaining deal value adding further credence. Looking at where the stock is trading, it seems fair to say investors expect a massive beat-and-raise quarter. Anything short of this could crater the stock.

Fair Value Estimate for Palantir Technologies

With its 1-star rating, we believe Palantir’s stock is significantly overvalued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $19 per share. We forecast Palantir’s revenue to grow at a 22% compound annual growth rate over the next five years as the firm expands both governmental and commercial operations.

We expect the majority of this top-line growth to be driven by commercial clients as the firm seeks to broaden its commercial client base. While government clients can be sticky, large governmental contracts create lumpiness in revenue. As a result, Palantir’s shift to more commercial clients should create a more ratable revenue mix. We also expect the firm to continue expanding sales within its existing client base. We view Palantir’s strong net retention rate as an indicator of this.

Read more about Palantir’s fair value estimate.

Economic Moat Rating

We assign Palantir a narrow moat, owing primarily to strong switching costs associated with its platforms and secondarily to intangible assets in the form of strong customer relationships the firm has built over the years.

We think Palantir’s two main platforms, Gotham and Foundry, both benefit from high customer switching costs, as evidenced by its gross and net retention metrics. Palantir has exhibited strong customer growth while diversifying its business away from lumpy governmental contracts toward commercial clients. As a result, although we forecast a couple of more years of hefty operating losses, we expect the firm to generate excess returns over invested capital over the next decade.

Read more about Palantir’s economic moat.

Financial Strength

We view Palantir’s financial position as healthy. The company ended fiscal 2023 with around $3.7 billion in cash and liquid investments and no debt. While Palantir only posted GAAP profitability in 2023, we expect the firm to continue this trend while generating strong cash flow margins as it increases its operating leverage by toning down some of its research and sales expenditures.

Read more about Palantir’s financial strength.

Risk and Uncertainty

We assign Palantir a Very High Uncertainty Rating due to some key risks that we view as potentially impeding its growth trajectory. While the firm has landed high-value commercial and government clients over the years, we have found the executive team’s execution to be questionable at best. The firm’s sales strategy has led to relatively poor customer acquisition, despite it being in the commercial space for many years, Palantir’s commercial customer count is only slightly more than 200. While the firm has pivoted to a module-based sales model that should bolster commercial customer additions, the execution of this strategy remains to be seen.

Read more about Palantir’s risk and uncertainty.

PLTR Bulls Say

• Palantir has strong secular tailwinds, as the AI/ML market is expected to grow rapidly due to the exponential increase in data harvested by organizations.
• With products targeting both commercial and governmental clients, Palantir has a distributed top line, with noncyclical governmental revenue insulating the overall top line during lean times.
• Palantir’s focus on modular sales could lead to substantially more commercial clients, which it could subsequently upsell.

PLTR Bears Say

• By not selling to countries or companies that are antithetical to its mission and cultural values, Palantir has self-restricted its growth opportunities.
• Palantir’s AI platform is off to a good start, but we anticipate robust competition in the years ahead.
• Palantir’s executive team has made questionable strategic decisions in the past. While past performance doesn’t necessarily indicate future results, the missteps could merit caution.

This article was compiled by Kayleigh Hall.