Marvell: Shares Pop With Increased Confidence in Our Custom Chip Share Retention Thesis

Key Morningstar Metrics for Marvell International

• Fair Value Estimate: $90
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High

Marvell stock rose 8% intraday on July 30 after a competing research firm published a note with bullish estimates for Microsoft’s Maia300 chip, which Marvell is reported to be designing. The note forecasts 300,000 units in the fourth quarter of calendar 2026 and over 1 million units in 2027.

Why it matters: We’re bullish on Marvell’s custom artificial intelligence chip business, which has been a key debate in the market. Despite conflicting supply chain rumors about share shifts, we expect Marvell to earn a significant revenue opportunity from both Microsoft and Amazon’s AWS over the next three years.

• We agree that Marvell is a critical design partner to its custom chip customers, despite rumors throughout 2025 that indicate otherwise. We believe Marvell as a partner provides customers with better performance and better time-to-market to compete with a rapid pace of GPU development.
• We find the report’s specific estimates on Maia to be lofty, particularly for pricing, which the report estimates at 4 times that of AWS’ Trainium chip, which Marvell also designs. If the report’s estimates are accurate, there would be upside to our forecast.

The bottom line: We maintain our $90 fair value estimate for Marvell and retain our bullishness on its AI business overall, inclusive of its custom accelerator opportunity. After the rise on July 30, shares now look fairly valued to us.

• We estimate Marvell’s total AI revenue to surpass $3 billion in fiscal 2026 (calendar 2025) and nearly double by fiscal 2029 (calendar 2028). We forecast custom accelerator revenue to make up over half of total AI sales by fiscal 2029, with ramps at AWS, Microsoft, and new customers.