Uber Earnings: A Decent Quarter for the Ideal Autonomous Vehicle Partner

Key Morningstar Metrics for Uber Technologies

• Fair Value Estimate: $79.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High

What We Thought of Uber Technologies’ Earnings

Uber Technologies UBER reported earnings that exceeded management guidance while maintaining respectable growth in key network effect metrics, including trips, monthly active platform consumers, engagement (trips/MAPC), and monetization per user. Despite this, shares are currently trading down in the mid-$60 range due to somewhat weak guidance for 2025, primarily driven by expected currency headwinds. However, we are maintaining our $79 fair value estimate and view the current pricing as an attractive entry point to this narrow-moat company.

Uber’s gross bookings for the quarter were $44.1 billion, representing 17.6% year-over-year growth. However, stripping out the effects of exchange rate fluctuations, growth was closer to 21% year over year. Our positive outlook is justified by progress on the most important measurables for network health. Quarterly trips surpassed 3 billion for the first time during the quarter, growing at an accelerating rate relative to the previous quarter.

Monthly active platform consumers, the demand side of the marketplace, is larger than ever before, and engagement (trips/MAPC) is at an all-time high. Impressively, Uber’s engagement level is now twice as great as Lyft’s. All these network effect metrics show that the virtuous cycle is intact and solidifies Uber’s place as the premier demand aggregator in the ride-hailing market.