Why We're Sweet on Mondelez

Beyond this, Mondelez disclosed that the recent global cyberattack would constrain its second-quarter top-line performance to the tune of 300 basis points, while also resulting in one-time charges in both the second and third quarter of fiscal 2017 (but was light on specifics). Although this is far from a positive, management maintained its full-year guidance for around 1% organic sales growth and adjusted operating margins approaching 16% (which generally aligns with our forecast). And we don’t expect this near-term challenge to prompt a change to our long-term outlook--for 4% annual sales growth and 350 basis points of operating margin expansion to 20% by fiscal 2026.

Even in the face of intense competitive pressures and slowing global growth, we believe the firm’s stable of strong brands (with seven that each generate more than $1 billion in annual sales, including Oreo, Cadbury, LU, and Trident), entrenched relationships with retailers, and expansive global scale (more than 75% of revenue derived outside North America) should ensure it withstands looming headwinds. In this context, and given that shares are trading at nearly at a 15% discount to our $50 fair value estimate, we think long-term investors should sweeten to this wide-moat name.

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