Puma Earnings: Surprisingly Poor 2025 Profit Guidance Overshadows Results; Shares Very Attractive

For the second time in two months, Puma stunned investors with disappointing profitability. On Jan. 22, we lowered our fourth-quarter earnings per share estimate to EUR 0.16 from EUR 0.33 after the firm's preliminary release (see our note). On March 12, Puma reported full results and guided to 2025 adjusted EBIT of EUR 520 million-EUR 600 million, down from 2024’s EUR 622 million and about 25% (at the midpoint) below our EUR 758 million estimate. We attribute its subpar profitability to outsize exposure to value channels and dependence on promotions. Ultimately, as suggested by our no-moat rating, Puma lacks brand strength.