Headwinds in Coffee and Sweet Baked Snacks Should Weigh on Smucker, Especially With Its Lack of Moat

Smucker has leading share in some categories, especially its Uncrustables brand, but we don’t think it has enough pricing power or entrenched retailer relationships to create an economic moat. Its long-term strategy is to turn low-single-digit sales growth into mid-single-digit adjusted operating income growth, leading to high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth—but we expect mid-single-digit adjusted EPS growth at midcycle.