Company Reports

J.M. Smucker's sales grew 5% in its fiscal first quarter. Adjusted gross margins expanded 760 basis points to 42.8%, though 520 basis points came from tariff refunds. Coffee sales and segment profit (36% of sales) benefited from last year's price increases, easing input costs, and the refunds.

Smucker has leading share in some categories, especially its Uncrustables brand, but we don’t think it has enough pricing power or entrenched retailer relationships to create an economic moat. Its long-term strategy targets low-single-digit sales growth, mid-single-digit adjusted operating income growth, and high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth. However, we expect it will fall short and deliver mid-single-digit adjusted EPS growth.

J.M. Smucker's fiscal fourth-quarter comparable sales grew 6% to $2.3 billion. Adjusted gross profit margin decreased 70 basis points to 36.8% on higher costs and unfavorable volume mix, but adjusted earnings per share rose 20% to $2.77 on lower marketing and distribution expenses.

Smucker has leading share in some categories, especially its Uncrustables brand, but we don’t think it has enough pricing power or entrenched retailer relationships to create an economic moat. Its long-term strategy targets low-single-digit sales growth, mid-single-digit adjusted operating income growth, and high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth. However, we expect it will fall short and deliver low-single-digit adjusted EPS growth.

J.M. Smucker's fiscal third-quarter comparable sales growth was 8%. Adjusted gross margin contracted 370 basis points to 33.8%. Segment profit margins fell 630 basis points to 21.9% for coffee and 1,430 basis points to 5.4% for sweet baked snacks, reflecting higher costs and unfavorable volume/mix.

Smucker has leading share in some categories, especially its Uncrustables brand, but we don’t think it has enough pricing power or entrenched retailer relationships to create an economic moat. Its long-term strategy targets low-single-digit sales growth, mid-single-digit adjusted operating income growth, and high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth. However, we expect mid-single-digit adjusted EPS growth.

J.M. Smucker reported fiscal 2026 second-quarter comparable sales growth of 5%. Adjusted gross margin fell 480 basis points to 33.9%. Segment profit margin for retail coffee fell 1,060 basis points on higher commodity costs and tariffs, while for sweet baked snacks it fell 1,390 basis points.

Smucker has leading share in some categories, especially its Uncrustables brand, but we don’t think it has enough pricing power or entrenched retailer relationships to create an economic moat. Its long-term strategy is to turn low-single-digit sales growth into mid-single-digit adjusted operating income growth, leading to high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth—but we expect mid-single-digit adjusted EPS growth at midcycle.

J.M. Smucker reported fiscal 2026 first-quarter comparable sales up 2%. However, adjusted gross margin fell 400 basis points to 35.2%. Segment profit margin for retail coffee fell 900 basis points and sweet baked snacks fell 880 basis points.

J.M. Smucker is facing near-term headwinds, particularly in coffee and sweet baked snacks. Fiscal 2026 guidance calls for 3.5%-5.5% comparable sales growth, but severe margin degradation is expected to cause adjusted earnings per share to fall 6%-16% to $8.50-$9.50.

Smucker has leading share in some categories, especially its Uncrustables brand, but we don’t think it has enough pricing power or entrenched retailer relationships to create an economic moat. Its long-term strategy is to turn low-single-digit sales growth into mid-single-digit adjusted operating income growth, leading to high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth—but we expect mid-single-digit adjusted EPS growth.

J.M. Smucker reported fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter comparable sales down 1% and adjusted gross margin down 280 basis points to 37.5%. Adjusted gross margin for retail coffee fell 300 basis points and sweet baked snacks fell 1,280 basis points. Fiscal 2026 guidance implies further profit headwinds.

Smucker has leading share in some categories, especially its Uncrustables brand, but we don’t think it has enough pricing power or entrenched retailer relationships to create an economic moat. Its long-term strategy is to turn low-single-digit sales growth into mid-single-digit adjusted operating income growth, leading to high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth—but we expect mid-single-digit run-rate growth.

J.M. Smucker's fiscal third-quarter results included comparable sales down 1% but gross margin expansion of 330 basis points. The firm lowered full-year comparable sales growth guidance to 0.75% from 1%-2% but increased adjusted earnings per share guidance to $9.85-$10.15 from $9.70-$10.10.

JM Smucker detailed its ongoing focus on key brands at an investor day on Dec. 10. Its algorithm for annual growth of low-single digits for sales, mid-single digits for adjusted operating income, high-single digits for adjusted earnings per share, and at least 10% shareholder return was unchanged.

Smucker has the leading brand in some categories, especially its Uncrustables brand, but we don’t think it enjoys enough pricing power or entrenched retailer relationships to create an economic moat. Its long-term strategy is to turn low-single-digit sales growth into mid-single-digit adjusted operating income growth, leading to high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth—but we expect mid-single-digit growth as likely.

JM Smucker reported decent fiscal second-quarter results with comparable net sales up 2%, pushing shares up 5%. The firm maintained full-year comparable revenue guidance of 1% to 2% but increased adjusted EPS guidance by $0.10 to $9.70 to $10.10 on stronger-than-expected margins.

Smucker has the leading brand in some categories, especially its Uncrustables brand, but we don’t think it enjoys enough pricing power or entrenched retailer relationships to create an economic moat. Its long-term strategy is to turn low-single-digit sales growth into mid-single-digit adjusted operating income growth, leading to high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth—but we expect mid-single-digit growth as likely.

We expect to reduce our fair value estimate of $133 per share for JM Smucker by a mid-single-digit percentage on its first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings release, roughly in line with the market reaction. Fiscal 2025 has started off more slowly than the company expected, leading management to reduce full-year guidance for net sales growth to 8.5%-9.5%, down 1 percentage point at each end. The cut also falls to the bottom line, with adjusted EPS guidance of $9.60-$10 down $0.20 at each end. In comparison, our preprint forecast for net sales growth adjusted earnings per share were 10.1% and $9.97, respectively.

Smucker has the leading brand in some categories, but we don’t think it enjoys pricing power or entrenched retailer relationships to create an economic moat. Its long-term strategy is to turn low-single-digit sales growth into mid-single-digit adjusted operating income growth, leading to high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth—but we expect mid-single-digit growth as likely.