Bapcor's Margins Have Rebased

We expect Bapcor's earnings to turn around from fiscal 2027, thanks to favorable industry dynamics. We forecast Bapcor to resume share gains in the fragmented trade market as it rolls out stores. We forecast a double-digit EPS compound annual growth rate over the next five years as the business recovers from trough earnings in fiscal 2026, improving same-store sales growth of around 2% per year, and growing private-label penetration.