Company Reports

The war in Iran is not affecting demand for Marriott's brands outside the Middle East. Indeed, the hotelier's US demand is improving, helped by tax rebates and investment in AI, onshoring, and infrastructure spending. We expect demand for Marriott's brands to endure and for the hotelier's global share to increase further over the next several years. Marriott has strong intangible assets, the source of its wide moat, valued by both hotel owners and travelers. In the past few years, Marriott has added several new brands, which support our constructive stance. In fact, recent brands StudioRes, City Express, citizenM, and Four Points not only extend Marriott's reach into the midscale and extended-stay segments but could also add several hundred hotels each over the next several years. Additionally, in 2025, the company acquired citizenM, which added about 8,000 rooms. Further, we believe the 2023 partnership with MGM's Vegas portfolio has strengthened Marriott's long-term brand advantage, as MGM's leading presence in the gaming mecca complements Marriott's dominant position in North America. Also, we see Marriott as having an industry-leading loyalty program with 295 million members (as of June 30, 2026), which incentivizes third-party hotel owners to join its brands.

Marriott's second-quarter revenue per available room, or revPAR, increased 3.4%, above its 1.5%-2.5% guidance range. Adjusted EBITDA increased 13%. The hotelier raised its 2026 revPAR growth target to 3%-3.5% from 2%-3%, but lowered 2026 unit growth to the lower end of its prior 4.5%-5% guidance.

The war in Iran is not affecting demand for Marriott's brands outside the Middle East. Indeed, the hotelier's US demand is improving, helped by tax rebates and investment in AI, onshoring, and infrastructure spending. We expect demand for Marriott's brands to endure and for the hotelier's global share to increase further over the next several years. Marriott has strong intangible assets, the source of its wide moat, valued by both hotel owners and travelers. In the past few years, Marriott has added several new brands, which support our constructive stance. In fact, recent brands StudioRes, City Express, citizenM, and Four Points not only extend Marriott's reach into the midscale and extended-stay segments but could also add several hundred hotels each over the next several years. Additionally, in 2025, the company acquired citizenM, which added about 8,000 rooms. Further, we believe the 2023 partnership with MGM's Vegas portfolio has strengthened Marriott's long-term brand advantage, as MGM's leading presence in the gaming mecca complements Marriott's dominant position in North America. Also, we see Marriott as having an industry-leading loyalty program with 283 million members (as of March 31, 2026), which incentivizes third-party hotel owners to join its brands.

Marriott International's first-quarter revenue per available room rose 4.2%. The firm increased its revPAR growth guidance for 2026 to 2%-3% from 1.5%-2.5% on US strength, even with an incremental 125-basis-point headwind in the Middle East. Sales strength helped adjusted EBITDA increase 15%.

While US consumer sentiment has waned recently, we expect demand for Marriott's brands to endure and for the hotelier's global share to increase further over the next several years. Marriott has a strong intangible assets, the source of its wide moat that is valued by both hotel owners and travelers. In the past few years, Marriott has added several new brands, which support our constructive stance. In fact, recent brands StudioRes, City Express, citizenM, and Four Points not only extend Marriott's reach into the midscale and extended-stay segments but could also add several hundred hotels each over the next several years. Additionally, in 2025, the company acquired citizenM, which added about 8,000 rooms. Further, we believe the 2016 acquisition of Starwood and the 2023 partnership with MGM's Vegas portfolio have strengthened Marriott's long-term brand advantage, as Starwood's global luxury portfolio and MGM's leading presence in the gaming mecca complement Marriott's dominant upper-scale position in North America. Also, we see Marriott as having an industry-leading loyalty program, with 271 million members (as of Dec. 31, 2025), which incentivizes third-party hotel owners to join the company's brands.

Marriott International's fourth-quarter revenue per available room grew 1.9%, near the top of the firm's 1%-2% guidance, with international up 6.1% and the US and Canada down 0.1%. Unit and pipeline growth was 4.3% and 6%, respectively. Full-year adjusted EBITDA grew 8%.

While US consumer sentiment has waned recently, we expect demand for Marriott's brands to endure and for the hotelier's global share to increase further over the next several years, due to its strong intangible assets, the source of its wide moat that is valued by both hotel owners and travelers. In the past few years, Marriott has added several new brands, which support our constructive stance. In fact, recent brands StudioRes, City Express, citizenM, and Four Points not only extend Marriott's reach into the midscale and extended-stay segments but could also add several hundred hotels each over the next several years. Additionally, its August 2024 partnership with Sonder adds about 10,000 rooms to a growing homes, villas, and apartments portfolio, and in 2025, the company acquired citizenM, which added about 8,000 rooms. Further, we believe the 2016 acquisition of Starwood and the 2023 partnership with MGM's Vegas portfolio have strengthened Marriott's long-term brand advantage, as Starwood's global luxury portfolio and MGM's leading presence in the gaming mecca complement Marriott's dominant upper-scale position in North America. Also, we see Marriott as having an industry-leading loyalty program, with 260 million members (as of Sept. 30, 2025), which incentivizes third-party hotel owners to join the company's brands.

Marriott's third-quarter revenue per available room, or revPAR, inched up 0.5%, weighed by economic uncertainty that led to a 0.4% decrease in the US and Canada. Adjusted EBITDA increased 9% on labor efficiency. Guidance for 2025 revPAR was maintained at 1.5%-2.5%.

While US consumer sentiment has waned recently, we expect demand for Marriott's brands to endure and for the hotelier's global share to increase further over the next several years, due to its strong intangible assets, the source of its wide moat that is valued by both hotel owners and travelers. In the past few years, Marriott has added several new brands, which support our constructive stance. In fact, recent brands StudioRes, City Express, citizenM, and Four Points not only extend Marriott's reach into the midscale and extended-stay segments but could also add several hundred hotels each over the next several years. Additionally, its August 2024 partnership with Sonder adds about 10,000 rooms to a growing homes, villas, and apartments portfolio, and in 2025, the company acquired citizenM, which added about 8,000 rooms. Further, we believe the 2016 acquisition of Starwood and the 2023 partnership with MGM's Vegas portfolio have strengthened Marriott's long-term brand advantage, as Starwood's global luxury portfolio and MGM's leading presence in the gaming mecca complement Marriott's dominant upper-scale position in North America. Also, we see Marriott as having an industry-leading loyalty program, with 248 million members (as of June 30, 2025), which incentivizes third-party hotel owners to join the company's brands.

Marriott's second-quarter revenue per available room increased 1.5%, which was at the lower end of the hotelier's 1.5%-2.5% guidance. US/Canada and international revPAR was flat and up 5.3%, respectively. The firm lowered its 2025 revPAR guidance to 1.5%-2.5%, from 1.5%-3.5%.

After 26 years with Marriott, Chief Financial Officer Leeny Oberg announced she will retire effective March 31, 2026. The company has named Jen Mason, a Marriott veteran of 33 years, as Oberg's replacement.

While US consumer sentiment has waned, we expect demand for Marriott's brands to endure this year and for the hotelier's global share to increase further over the next several years, due to its strong intangible asset, source of its wide moat, which is endeared by both hotel owners and travelers. In the past few years, Marriott has added several new brands, which support our constructive stance. In fact, recent brands StudioRes, City Express, and Four Points, not only extend Marriott's reach into the midscale and extended-stay segments but could also add several hundred hotels each over the next several years. Additionally, its August 2024 partnership with Sonder adds about 10,000 rooms to a growing homes, villas, and apartments portfolio, and in 2025, the company announced an acquisition of citizenM that will add about 8,000 rooms. Further we believe the 2016 acquisition of Starwood and 2023 partnership with MGM's Vegas portfolio has strengthened Marriott's long-term brand advantage, as Starwood's global luxury portfolio and MGM's leading presence in the gaming mecca complement Marriott's dominant upper-scale position in North America. Also, we see Marriott as having an industry-leading loyalty program, with 237 million members (as of March 31, 2025), which incentivizes third-party hotel owners to join the company's brands.

Marriott's first-quarter revenue per available room, or revPAR, increased 4.1%, topping the hotelier's 3%-4% guidance, while adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.217 billion—above its $1.170 billion to $1.195 billion target. Amid US policy uncertainty, the firm reduced its 2025 revPAR to 1.5%-3.5% from 2%-4%.

While US savings rates have waned and inflation has remained, we expect demand for Marriott's brands to endure this year and for the hotelier's global share to increase further over the next several years, due to its strong intangible asset, source of its wide moat, which is endeared by both hotel owners and travelers. In the past few years, Marriott has added several new brands, which support our constructive stance along with a favorable next-generation traveler position. In fact, recent brands StudioRes, City Express, and Four Points, not only extend Marriott's reach into the midscale and extended-stay segments but could also add several hundred hotels each over the next several years. Additionally, its August 2024 partnership with Sonder adds about 10,000 rooms to a growing homes, villas, and apartments portfolio. Also, we see Marriott as having an industry-leading loyalty program, with 228 million members (as of Dec. 31, 2024), which incentivizes third-party hotel owners to join the company's brands. Additionally, we believe the 2016 acquisition of Starwood and 2023 partnership with MGM's Vegas portfolio has strengthened Marriott's long-term brand advantage, as Starwood's global luxury portfolio and MGM's leading presence in the gaming mecca complement Marriott's dominant upper-scale position in North America.

Marriott shares dropped about 5% during Feb. 11 intraday trading despite healthy fourth-quarter results and a constructive demand outlook for 2025. We attribute the reaction to high expectations, after a more than 40% increase in the shares since early August. We plan to increase our $253 fair value estimate by a low-single-digit percentage to account for the quarter’s stronger results, but trading at 18 times forward enterprise value/EBITDA, the shares look overvalued to us.

While US savings rates have waned and inflation has remained, we expect demand for Marriott's brand advantage to endure and for the hotelier's global share to increase further over the next several years, due to its strong intangible asset, source of its wide moat, which is endeared by both hotel owners and travelers. In the past few years, Marriott has added several new brands, which support our constructive stance along with a favorable next-generation traveler position. In fact, recent brands StudioRes, City Express, and Four Points, not only extend Marriott's reach into the midscale and extended-stay segments but could also add several hundred hotels each over the next several years. Additionally, its August 2024 partnership with Sonder adds about 10,000 rooms to a growing homes, villas, and apartments portfolio. Also, we see Marriott as having an industry-leading loyalty program, with 219 million members (as of Sept. 30, 2024), which incentivizes third-party hotel owners to join the company's brands. Additionally, we believe the 2016 acquisition of Starwood and 2023 partnership with MGM's Vegas portfolio has strengthened Marriott's long-term brand advantage, as Starwood's global luxury portfolio and MGM's leading presence in the gaming mecca complement Marriott's dominant upper-scale position in North America.

Despite reduced savings and elevated inflation, we are more constructive on intermediate-term revenue per available room, or revPAR, for Marriott, based on our findings of past environments of stout US industry growth. As a result, we have increased our 2026-28 Marriott revPAR to an average annual growth rate of 5.3% from 3.5% previously and our fair value estimate to $253 per share (or 14.6 times 2025 EV/EBITDA) from $228. Despite our expanded valuation, we see shares as overvalued, but we wouldn't need much discount to our fair value estimate to recommend shares of this brand advantaged wide-moat company.

We expect Marriott's global share to increase further over the next several years, due to its strong intangible asset, source of its wide moat, which is endeared by both hotel owners and travelers. In the past few years, Marriott has added several new brands, which support our constructive stance along with a favorable next-generation traveler position. In fact, recent brands StudioRes, City Express, and Four Points, not only extend Marriott's reach into the midscale and extended-stay segments but could also add several hundred hotels each over the next several years. Additionally, its August 2024 partnership with Sonder adds about 10,000 rooms to a growing homes, villas, and apartments portfolio. Also, we see Marriott as having an industry-leading loyalty program, with 219 million members (as of Sept. 30, 2024), which incentivizes third-party hotel owners to join the company's brands. Additionally, we believe the 2016 acquisition of Starwood and 2023 partnership with MGM's Vegas portfolio has strengthened Marriott's long-term brand advantage, as Starwood's global luxury portfolio and MGM's leading presence in the gaming mecca complement Marriott's dominant upper-scale position in North America.

We don’t plan to change our Marriott $223 per share fair value estimate materially, as the hotelier’s third-quarter results and outlook closely mirrored our preprint forecast. While we wouldn’t require much discount to our valuation to recommend shares of this wide-moat company, we currently view shares as rich, trading above 16 times forward EV/EBITDA, versus about 14 times in 2018-19.

Following its partnership with no-moat MGM’s Las Vegas portfolio in July 2023, Marriott announced a 20-year license agreement with Sonder on Aug. 19, 2024. The deal is set to add about 9,000 rooms to Marriott’s portfolio by the end of this year. As a result, we have increased our 2024 net unit growth to 6.3%, up from 5.8% prior, and lifted our fair value estimate to $223 per share from $221. We see shares as appropriately valued but wouldn’t require much discount to recommend shares of this industry-leading brand.