September US CPI Report Shows Inflation at a 2.4% Annual Rate, Just Above Expectations

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% in September from year-ago levels—a tick down from August’s 2.5% rate. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 3.3% in September over the last 12 months after rising 3.2% in August.

The CPI increased 0.2% in September from month-ago levels, as it did in August. Core CPI rose 0.3%, matching the August increase.

While inflation overall continued to trend lower, the report showed slightly higher inflation pressures than expected. Economists forecast the CPI would rise 0.1% on a monthly basis in September after rising 0.2% in August, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. That would have brought the overall inflation rate to 2.3% from 2.5% in August. Economists predicted core inflation would rise 0.2% on a monthly basis in September and 3.2% on an annual basis.

September CPI Report Key Stats

• CPI increased 0.2% for the month, as it did in August.
• Core CPI climbed 0.3% after rising by the same amount in August.
• CPI rose 2.4% year over year after increasing by 2.5% the prior month.
• Core CPI rose 3.3% from year-ago levels after rising 3.2% in August.

Food prices increased 0.4% after rising 0.1% in August. Food-at-home prices rose 0.4% over the month, while food-away-from-home (restaurant) prices increased 0.3%. Energy prices were mixed overall after falling 0.8% the prior month. Utility (piped) gas service prices climbed 0.7%, fuel oil prices fell 6.0%, gasoline prices fell 4.1%, and electricity prices increased 0.7%. Shelter prices climbed 0.2% after rising 0.5% in August.