Smart Investor: The Dollar’s Decline, Nvidia’s $5 Trillion Milestone, and Why the AI Spending Spree Could Spell Trouble

We wrap up our coverage of the markets and the week.

Collage illustration of a robot and a semiconductors, with graphical elements in the background.
Securities in This Article
Airbus SE ADR
(EADSY)
International Business Machines Corp
(IBM)
NVIDIA Corp
(NVDA)

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Stocks closed October on another high note, with the market up 0.59% for the week and 2.14% for the month. One major exception to that momentum is the US dollar, which has rebounded from its early 2025 lows but remains down for the year. Dan Lefkovitz identifies three asset classes that have profited from that weakness, underscoring the importance of currency diversification when the fiscal or macroeconomic outlook is uncertain.

Meanwhile, tech and artificial intelligence stocks had yet another blowout week, even accounting for a brief pause in the rally on Thursday. Chip giant Nvidia NVDA surpassed $5 trillion in market capitalization, a mind-boggling feat for a company that crossed the $4 trillion mark only a few months ago. Morningstar senior equity analyst Brian Colello raised his fair value estimate for the stock after new revenue disclosures showed the firm’s AI supply chain is expanding at a breakneck pace.

Gabe Alpert screened for the 10 funds that own the most Nvidia stock, while Bella Albrecht and I dug under the hood of tech’s multiyear bull market with five charts showing just how dominant the sector has become.

Even as enthusiasm for AI pushes those stocks to new highs, fears persist that tech giants’ enormous spending commitments are fueling a dangerous bubble. Larry Swedroe dug into new research about how today’s AI capex boom could spell trouble for investors down the line. The takeaway? AI isn’t going anywhere, but history shows that infrastructure booms are often accompanied by overinvestment and poor returns.

In Washington, central bankers delivered another interest rate cut, but that decision came against the backdrop of unusual divisions within the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee. As Morningstar senior US economist Preston Caldwell writes, investors should prepare for more dissent down the road and continued uncertainty for the path forward.

Lastly, Susan Dziubinski rounds up the 10 best dividend aristocrats to buy now, while Bella Albrecht finds eight newly overvalued stocks, including IBM IBM and Airbus EADSY.

As always, be sure to visit the Markets page for our latest coverage and live stock market updates, along with our full weekly calendar of key upcoming data and events.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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