Volvo Expects North American Truck Market to Weaken Next Year — Update

By Dominic Chopping

STOCKHOLM--Volvo expects the North American truck market to be slightly weaker next year as customers remain cautious, but Europe is expected to hold up better.

The Swedish truckmaker said the North American long-haul freight market remains in recession, with lower freight volumes and freight prices. U.S. customers are taking a cautious stance as they also face continued uncertainty from tariffs and emissions rules.

President Trump last month announced a 25% tariff on all big trucks imported to the U.S., and though details remain scarce, it is creating overall demand uncertainty in the region, compounded by uncertainty over emissions proposals due to be implemented in 2027.

Group truck orders fell 14% in the quarter, with softness in Europe following good order momentum in the first half of the year. The European order backlog is at a good level, though, and deliveries in the quarter rose 10% as production was increased before the summer.

In North America, demand for Mack-branded straight trucks--vehicles that have the cab and cargo area permanently attached to a single frame--and refuse trucks helped orders rise 10% in the quarter. Deliveries in the region fell 20% though as the company cut production in response to the more difficult market conditions.

"We are in a period with weaker demand in our key regions and with increased uncertainty in North America," Chief Executive Martin Lundstedt said.

"We have adjusted our operations, applied strict cost control, remain firm on commercial conditions and drive our service business."

Volvo's customers continue to use their vehicles and machines, which means that they will have to be replaced sooner or later, and the company is well-positioned to capture growth in the next cyclical upturn, he added.

Volvo lowered its 2025 truck market forecast for North America by 10,000 trucks, but maintained its European guidance.

Looking to 2026, the company expects lower North American truck demand, targeting an overall market of 250,000 trucks versus the expected 265,000 in 2025. The European market is expected at 295,000 next year compared with the anticipated 290,000 this year.

Analysts at Bernstein said truck orders are around 16% below expectations, but the 2026 market outlooks are in line with the bank's model, so changes to 2026 consensus should be limited.

Volvo reported a third-quarter net profit of 7.54 billion Swedish kronor ($799.8 million) compared with 10.02 billion kronor a year earlier as sales fell 5.4% to 110.69 billion kronor. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected a net profit of 8.62 billion kronor on sales of 111.19 billion kronor.

Write to Dominic Chopping at dominic.chopping@wsj.com

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October 17, 2025 03:24 ET (07:24 GMT)