DraftKings and FanDuel are likely to lose money on the NBA Finals - whether the Knicks or Spurs win

By Weston Blasi

San Antonio 'is the biggest remaining liability on the futures book,' say sports-betting experts - but the Knicks 'are a loser for the book as well'

Victor Wembanyama, the young star of the San Antonio Spurs.

Sportsbooks were sweating more than the players when the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs booked their tickets to the NBA Finals. That's because either the Knicks or Spurs winning a title could be a big problem for their businesses.

With the Knicks, sportsbooks could lose because of how many people have been betting on them to win the championship all season. The New York team has attracted roughly half of all money wagered on the NBA Finals this season on DraftKings Sportsbook (DKNG).

For the Spurs, it's a different story. Led by French phenom Victor Wembanyama, they're more of a Cinderella story; they had little chance of winning the NBA Finals at the beginning of the year, per the oddsmakers. This meant that even a small wager on the Spurs promised a huge payout. The Spurs entered the season at +6500 odds to win the Finals on DraftKings - meaning a $100 bet would profit $6,500 - and would be one of the biggest preseason underdogs to win the title in league history.

So if the Knicks win, sportsbooks will lose because bettors have been risking a lot of money on them all season long, creating a liability. And if the Spurs win, sportsbooks will still lose, because the Texas team had such longshot odds at the beginning of the year that the payouts would also create a liability. It's a lose-lose situation for bookmakers.

Multiple sportsbooks told MarketWatch about this unique situation, but declined to say how much in losses it would mean. Yet when pressed about which team winning would result in bigger losses, it turns out the Spurs could do more damage to bookmakers' bottom lines.

"The sportsbook will be cheering for the Knicks, as San Antonio is the biggest remaining liability on the futures book," Anthony Parenti, a sports trader for BetMGM (MGM), told MarketWatch.

"[The] Knicks are a loser for the book as well, but [the] Spurs are bigger," a BetMGM spokesperson added.

In other words, casual and professional bettors will likely be getting a rare victory over the house.

See: $668,603,360,342 - that's how much people have legally bet on sports since the Supreme Court's 2018 ruling

Bettors getting the best of sportsbooks has, of course, happened before - but it's rare. The 2024-25 NFL season featured the most "customer-friendly" outcomes that online sportsbooks had ever seen; sportsbooks incurred hundreds in millions of dollars worth of losses after a string of overfavorable outcomes.

And some sportsbooks are now not optimistic about the Knicks' chances either, possibly furthering their potential losses.

"The Spurs have the best player and the better overall team, making them clear favorites in the NBA Finals," Parenti said.

After the Finals teams were confirmed, several sportsbooks, including FanDuel (FLUT) and DraftKings, confirmed that the early betting was more tilted toward the Knicks.

On FanDuel, for example, 56% of bets and 65% of the handle, or total money wagered, were on the Knicks to win the series.

"As far as [betting] tickets, there are more on the Knicks so far by about 2 to 1," Caesars Sportsbook Pro Basketball Lead David Lieberman told MarketWatch.

Some notable bets on the NBA Finals so far include:

-- A preplayoffs wager of $50,000 on San Antonio +650 to win the NBA title, for a potential profit of $325,000, on BetMGM.

-- A $20,000 bet on Knicks +2200 to win the championship made during the first round, for a potential profit of $440,000, on BetMGM.

-- A $49,000 wager on the Knicks to win the title, for a potential profit of $931,000 on DraftKings

The 2026 NBA Finals tips off on Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. Eastern time, when the Spurs host the Knicks in San Antonio in Game 1.

U.S. sportsbooks' liabilities on both NBA Finals teams come at a time when betting operators are facing increased competition. Traditional sportsbooks have seen their stocks take a hit with the emergence of prediction markets like Polymarket and their sports event contracts.

See: NYC bar uses prediction markets to hedge against a new financial risk: A Knicks victory

-Weston Blasi

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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06-03-26 1235ET

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