There's a new Wall Street TACO index - and this one is saying it's time for Trump to strike a deal

By Steve Goldstein

Is it TACO time at the White House?

JPMorgan has devised a TACO barometer, referring to the expression Trump Always Chickens Out, as a way to predict the behavior of the mercurial world leader.

JPMorgan isn't the first to do so - Signum Global Advisers has its own version. The Signum one has four variables: Brent crude oil, the 10-year yield, the number of Hormuz crossings and the S&P 500.

The JPMorgan construction doesn't have oil at all, though all three of its variables do have sensitivity to oil prices: approval ratings, the S&P 500 SPX and 10-year yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y.

Like the Signum model, JPMorgan then ranks the data relative to their own history, in what's called Z scores.

The historical record of the JPMorgan TACO gauge does show notable pivots when the barometer falls through pain points - from Trump saying the bond market got "yippy" to the pause in fighting with Iran.

The current state of play is that there are talks between the U.S. and Iran - an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman on Tuesday said they have received a U.S. proposal.

That's as Brent crude prices (BRN00) on Monday saw their biggest one-day drop in a week.

-Steve Goldstein

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09-30-26 0516ET