After Earnings, Is Boeing Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?

Boeing released its first-quarter earnings report on April 22. Here’s Morningstar’s take on Boeing’s earnings and stock.

Key Morningstar Metrics for Boeing Stock

• Fair Value Estimate
  : $238.00
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : High

What We Thought of Boeing’s Q1 Earnings

Boeing delivered just 13 more jets in the first quarter of 2026 than it did in 2025, fueling 13% commercial revenue growth and a similar $563 million loss in the quarter. Defense delivered $233 million profit on 21% higher revenue, with aftermarket services up 6% and contributing $971 million in operating profit.

Why it matters: We estimate that half of Boeing’s enterprise value is derived from its 737 product line. Increasing the rate at which the company can make and deliver these jets is the single biggest driver of near- and long-term profitability and cash flow, and Boeing received Federal Aviation Administration approval to do so in October 2025.

• Our forecast for 2026 deliveries of 737s (including shipping previously built ones from inventory) now calls for 71 more jets than the 447 the company achieved in 2025, and we expect the company may deliver just five more 787s than it did last year.
• While both should be positive developments for the company’s turnaround trajectory, they represent a less steep ramp than we previously supposed. The company is taking time to meticulously refine the manufacturing process for its 737 assembly lines while producing the already-popular 737-MAX8 and 737-MAX9.

The bottom line: We reduced our fair value estimate for wide-moat Boeing to $238 per share from $246, reflecting a slower commercial delivery ramp-up and slightly higher long-term investment required in the business, offset by some growth in new defense business. The shares trade very close to our revised fair value estimate.

Coming up: We’ll eagerly monitor Boeing’s progress on deliveries of its 737 and 787, as well as flight testing and certification of its newest and largest jet, the 777X, due later in 2026. Provided it progresses to plan, we believe the company will achieve its approximately $3 billion free cash flow goal in 2026 and reach $10 billion by 2028 or 2029.

Fair Value Estimate for Boeing

With its 3-star rating, we believe Boeing stock is fairly valued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $238 per share. This represents an enterprise value of 24.4 times our 2026 EBITDA estimate and 63 times our 2026 adjusted earnings estimate. We think enormous special charges and fleet groundings are almost certainly behind Boeing, especially since it recorded a $4.9 billion charge in the third quarter of 2025 for further delays in the 777X certification process and yet another KC-46 tanker charge in the fourth quarter. We forecast one more year of really hard slogging as the company clears up certification, manufacturing, and supply chain issues that hamper its production pace.

Read more about Boeing’s fair value estimate.

Economic Moat Rating

We think Boeing merits a wide moat because it benefits from durable intangible assets and switching costs. Although Boeing has taken competitive hits from Airbus in the commercial aerospace duopoly, the commercial airplane market is large enough and so difficult to break into that it supports two wide-moat aircraft manufacturers. At present, Boeing has a superior product in the wide-body or long-haul category, and Airbus is enjoying the advantage with variants of its narrow-body A320 and A321 lines.

Read more about Boeing’s economic moat.

Financial Strength

Boeing’s capitalization suffered the brunt of recent years’ turmoil. To keep the lights on in 2019-20, the company borrowed nearly $50 billion and ceased dividends and share purchases. Facing a prolonged machinists’ strike and to stave off a debt rating downgrade, the company announced layoffs to cut costs and issued $23 billion of combined equity and convertible preferred stock due 2027, leaving it with $7 billion in cash and $53 billion of debt by mid-2025.

While the company has booked billions in losses in successive quarters, with each eventual delivery of one of its major aircraft, Boeing can improve its cash flow. We expect EBITDA expansion and debt reduction over our forecast period to lead to gross debt/EBITDA of about 8.4 by 2026 and gradually lower levels in subsequent years. The company has access to additional liquidity if necessary. In subsequent years, as free cash flow growth continues, we expect Boeing’s leverage to improve markedly.

The first capital-allocation priority is to reduce debt, but the company will face important trade-offs as it also needs to reinvest in new technology to remain competitive. We think the correct balance between debt reduction and reinvestment is the critical question management needs to address once its cash flow generation resumes in earnest beyond 2027.

Read more about Boeing’s financial strength.

Risk and Uncertainty

We think Boeing deserves a High Uncertainty Rating. Its biggest risks are operational risks that constrain supply and macroeconomic risks that limit demand, both of which the company has suffered over the last several years. It is working through even thornier supply chain risks than Airbus as it ramps up 737 MAX and 787 production and deliveries. A second major risk lies in global supply chain disruptions that also affect Airbus’ and Boeing’s engine and subsystem suppliers. These suppliers may not be able to ramp up production at Boeing’s desired pace, which would constrain or delay its ability to get its assembly up to the volume where it can earn profit on plane deliveries, versus recording extraordinary charges for idle or duplicative assembly capacity.

Read more about Boeing’s risk and uncertainty.

BA Bulls Say

• Boeing has a large backlog that covers several years of production for its most popular aircraft, which gives us confidence in aggregate demand for aerospace products.
• Boeing is positioned to benefit from emerging-market growth in revenue passenger kilometers and a robust developed-market replacement cycle over the next two decades.
• We expect commercial airframe manufacturing to remain a duopoly for most of the world for the foreseeable future. We think customers will not have any meaningful options other than continuing to rely on incumbent aircraft suppliers.

BA Bears Say

• Boeing’s reputation for engineering prowess may have taken a permanent hit since repeated manufacturing flaws in 737 MAX jets have hampered the assembly pace and disrupted airlines’ and passengers’ schedules.
• In the long term, changed consumer behavior, especially among business travelers, could be unfavorable for aviation.
• Aircraft development is notoriously susceptible to development delays, hiccups, and cost overruns.

This article was compiled by Jillian Moore.