Boeing Earnings: The Turnaround Is Nearly There

Key Morningstar Metrics for Boeing

• Fair Value Estimate
  : $246.00
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : High

What We Thought of Boeing’s Earnings

Boeing BA delivered 314 jets in the first half of 2026, fueling 8% commercial revenue growth and a $322 million loss in the second quarter. Defense sales grew 13% but lost $15 million with another Air Force One charge. Aftermarket services were flat, contributing $968 million in operating profit.

Why it matters: We estimate that half of Boeing’s enterprise value is derived from its 737 product line. Increasing the rate at which the company can make and deliver these jets is the single biggest driver of its near- and long-term profitability and cash flow, and Boeing is working on upping its monthly 737 output from 42 to 47 by late 2026.

• Completion of flight testing and certification by the US Federal Aviation Administration of Boeing’s newest and largest jet, the 777X, is due later in 2026, and certification of the MAX-7 and MAX-10 variants of the 737 is also imminent.
• Provided these milestones are met, we believe the company will generate approximately $1.5 billion in free cash flow in 2026 and could surpass its $10 billion goal by 2028.

The bottom line: We increased our fair value estimate for wide-moat Boeing to $246 per share from $238, primarily reflecting the time value of money since our last valuation update and slightly higher long-term investment required in the business. The shares trade within 10% of our revised fair value estimate.