Ahead of Earnings, Is Ferrari Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?

Key Morningstar Metrics for Ferrari

• Fair Value Estimate: EUR 370.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★
• Economic Moat: Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Medium

We expect Ferrari RACE to close 2025 on a softer note relative to earlier quarters, as the company is undergoing a significant model changeover that will extend into 2026, including the launch of its first fully electric model, the Ferrari Elettrica, expected to be unveiled in spring 2026.

Fourth-quarter volumes are likely to be pressured by the phase-out of the Daytona model, as the initial deliveries of the new F80 supercar will not fully compensate. The F80 will require a couple of quarters to reach full production capacity, weighing on volumes and profitability year over year.

On the cost side, increased racing expenditures and higher depreciation and amortization, reflecting the ramp-up of new model launches, are set to further pressure quarterly profitability, an area we believe investors will scrutinize closely, together with personalization contribution. For the full year 2025, management is guiding for net revenues above EUR 7.1 billion and an EBIT margin above 29%, targets we expect the company to achieve.

During its capital markets day last October, Ferrari presented its updated medium-term strategy, targeting revenue and profitability growth primarily through pricing and product mix, with limited volume expansion. We believe this disciplined value-over-volume approach reinforces its wide economic moat, as exclusivity remains central to preserving Ferrari’s brand.

Management is targeting mid-single-digit annual revenue and earnings growth through 2030, falling short of market expectations. While investors may look for catalysts to support a re-rating of the stock following recent weakness, we believe these are more likely to emerge in the second half of 2026, as the launch of Ferrari Elettrica and growing sales contribution from high-priced F80 could prove management’s outlook to be on the conservative side.